Toupellon has a lot of would-be rulers and hardly any structure. Anatole had lots of friends but he did very little in terms of defining Toupellon outside of 'it's a Kingdom that's not Ohnar West and it's not Cathay.' But all the actual magnates are the same ones from Ohnar West and Cathay: James, two Quinceys, Taylin, Vulpes. There's only one new Duke in the entire mix (Claude). Several of the region lords are new(er) but I would bet on Toupellon's fate coming down to whether it survives its first crisis, no matter who takes the throne.
Cathay in its latter days and Ohnar were both dominated by very weak central governments and very powerful Dukes whose decisions (or non-decisions) had a lot more to do with what happened than the ruler. I haven't seen any evidence that Toupellon is any different -- Anatole didn't make a lot of enemies (outside of neo-Cathay's signposts) precisely because he rarely rocked the boat.