But then again, maybe we can all be friends 
This.
As much fun as a rival Madinan bloc would be to the Véinsørmoot, as a player, I really, really want to see a united Maroccidens. Formally, the Véinsørmoot claims to be a body representing the whole Maroccidens and, to some degree, the Mesoccidens. Whatever realm ends up holding Candiels somewhere down the line, we'd really like to co-opt them into the Véinsørmoot: not in order to keep Madina weak, but because, really, we want a strong Maroccidens. That's the goal. The objective is that we all start to get TMP, then, to stave it off, either fight the Zuma, or go on expeditions against foreign foes.
Terran's army is pretty good. D'Hara and Terran together can assemble about 10,000-12,000 CS in a pinch for one long campaign. Whether we can reliably do it is quite unknown. Our borders are pretty defensible; the D'Haran ports are tough nuts to crack, militarily (though starvation can do it).
Ideally, for the Véinsørmoot to be effective, it needs to have sufficient soft power to avoid wars in the first place, then enough power to secure all borders defensively, and have good first-strike capabilities. Terran's armies are specifically structured towards that end: we have an army whose purpose, essentially, is to be constantly on-call to go marching off to defend someone else's land. That army is plenty to tip the balance defending a fortified position, or launch a raid in enemy back-country... but it's not big enough to contest a field against a national army, and I doubt the Véinsørmoot can sustain long-term deployments of full armies from Terran and D'Hara.
But beating a colony in Candiels wouldn't require that. All it would require is a solid defense of Paisly combined with sporadic raids down the peninsula. That sort of war I am entirely confident the Véinsørmoot could win. If the Lurian realms decided to attack us, we'd be in for a painful war. But keeping Candiels in line if we want to is certainly manageable.
