No lower than D'hara and Terran going to war with Aurvandil while their ally Barca is trying to sue for peace, and pretty much ensure the destruction of that realm.
With all due respect, Barca didn't lose a single region to Aurvandil. They lost it to starvation.
And strangely, Terran didn't lose any regions to starvation, yet Barca's surplus was bigger. We call that "Your own damn fault" where I come from.
Honestly, without this apocalyptic level of starvation, we'd still have to be seeking peace, but it'd be a very different ballgame. The current situation in the Moot is 100% politics. Without Lurian support, Aurvandil could beat us, but only gradually, and it'd be a brokered peace settlement. But with Luria hitting D'Hara, we'd have had to seek peace and made real concessions. But with Luria hitting D'Hara AND starvation on a scale which I have personally never before witnessed in Battlemaster... yeah, we're !@#$ed. It's just a question of how much we're going to lose.
On the other hand, if we get lots of D'Haran and Barcan refugees and our noble count spikes, that could help us a lot.