Terran and D'Hara have quite long memories. We have certainly not forgitting Nightling's escapades involving Paisly. Moreover, given that Terran regards Paisly as a tier-1 security interest, the slightest threat to it is like a threat on our own borders. Without Paisly controlled by a close ally of Terran, our entire realm would be destabilized. Until Madina can make a credible guarantee of Paisly's safety, I doubt Terran could be convinced to trust Madina very far at all.
There are quite a few characters left in Terran who remember the fighting in Paisly quite vividly, and are still bitter about it, and still dislike Madina over that issue, and still want revenge for the burning of our southern rurals.
Though, given the pinch for food in Maroccidens, Madina could deploy "food diplomacy" to great effect if they chose. Alongside a categorical rejection of claims on Paisly. Perhaps also accompanied by a constitutional change that will make Madina more reliable and understandable to its neighbors?
Honestly, that's one of the biggest reason my character doesn't even bother befriending Madina: because there's no way to know who is worth talking to. Your power structure is so completely mangled and confused that there's no way for anyone outside to know if the person we're talking to has any real authority, and nobody has the patience to individually court all of Madina's lords.
