If the numbers say anything, it's that if Aurvandil ever does take the Tower, Madina will probably be overrun.
I knew this long ago. The numbers aren't really all, the geography change would be immense: instead of having a chokepoint that locks Aurvandil to their capital, they would have an extra layer of protection and be able to go fight on unfortified regions.
If Aurvandil gets the tower, one way or another, Madina's done for.
