[Forum Game] Werewolf XIV: The Vengeance Factor

[Ketchum]

Hmm, I need do further review after reading all the posts.


Being Marshal of an Army in Battlemaster is a good job for analysis. Amount of letters received are insanely high, haha 8)

[Fury]

... Yeah, it does.

Given your propensity to use "intuition" instead of reasoning skills, I'm kind of surprised that you want to offhandedly reject an argument because it's supposedly based on a small sample space.

Right, and a larger sample space like mine has "reasoning" skills where you were so convinced I was innocent until Dishman voted for me and you made a 180% about turn right on the spot even before I spoke up after he voted.

[Dishman]

This group has already shown that it wants to lynch active, loud players against its own interest. For him to suddenly jump out like this, already knowing this fact would be absurdly stupid.

I've been thinking on this. I'm afraid the wolves will hit active players from now on, so it might be better to hedge our bets with an inactive player. Not saying Fury isn't hairy....just not hairy enough yet. There is nothing to lose with a Penchant lynch.

UNVOTE: Fury
VOTE: Penchant

[Fury]

All right, Penchant then. He's on my unknown list.

UNVOTE Stabbity
VOTE Penchant

[D'Espana]

Ambassadors, I am sorry that I could not make a proper analysis after stating that I would do so. I drank more than I should, and have been sleeping all the morning long (OOC: more or less the same, but IRL)

Having just look over everything that has been said, I guess my vote matters little right now. Nevertheless, I want to manifest my agreement with the choice, for one simple reason: losing those that do not make any remark to the group harms us less than being wrong in the lynch of the most vocal members. What is more important, in previous precedents of similar circumstances (aka other games) the silence has been both weapon and shield of the assassin, giving him the chance to remain out of the scenario until it was too late to detect his treachery.

Because of this, and in light of the lack of more relevant hints, I VOTE PENCHANT.

[Lefanis]

Vote Stabbity- Ketchum,
Vote Penchant- Dishman, Fury, D'espana
Vote Fury- Stabbity, Norrel,

Despite the extra time available to them, the diplomats didn't manage to reach a consensus. After hours of bickering, the frightened diplomats were split into three groups, one which wanted to lynch Fury, another which wanted to hang Penchant, and the wizened Ketchum who wanted to string up Stabitty all by himself. At the end of the day, Dishman, Fury and D'espana had their way, and dragged off Penchant to the gallows.

Despite not putting up a verbal defense of himself at all earlier in the day, Penchant struggled mightily in his captors arms, even managing to strike Dishman hard under his ear. However, it was too little too late, and before long Penchant was hanging from the rope, the last breath being squeezed out of him by the noose.

This time the diplomats searched his quarters immediately, but sadly found nothing to incriminate Penchant, though they found many weights and lifts, and a dartboard shaped in the form of Dishman's face which Penchant evidently enjoyed using. Turns out, Penchant was an undercover bodyguard (rival of Dishman), sent to protect them. Too bad for him...

Now genuinely petrified, the diplomats realised them time was running out for them. More guards were conscripted to defend them and be with them at all times to ensure their safety.

In the evening, all the diplomats gathered in the hall, where a banquet had been laid out for them. Despite all the deaths so far, evidently their governments were very keen to see the peace talks didn't fail, though their collective patience was running thin.

In the group setting, the diplomats automatically began to feel more secure, even managing to laugh and joke as if they hadn't been through the horror of the past three days. Wine flowed freely, and soon everyone began to feel better about themselves.

Filling his goblet with the last drops of the Arcaean red from the pitcher near him, recently promoted, and now head of Sorraini delegation, diplomat Dishman raised the goblet high, still feeling conflicted about having initiated the vote against Penchant.

"To Penchant!", he cried bringing the goblet to his lips and upending it. A few drops dribbled down his lips. The other diplomats followed suit, downing their wine in a quick gulp. Conversations resumed quickly, but no one noticed Dishman, whose head had collapsed on the table before him. It was only later, when everyone was retiring for the day, that people released Dishman just wasn't getting up, and noticed the mess his bile had made over the table.

Dishman, the diplomat (and Penchants mutual rival) has been killed!

[Lefanis]

Diplomats-

• Norrel
• Dishman- Diplomat (Penchants rival), poisoned on Day 2
• Penchant- Bodyguard (Dishman's rival), lynched on Day 2
• D'espana
• Ketchum
• Stabbity
• Thomasgriff- Diplomat/hunter, hung to death on Day 1
• Arrandal- Ambassador, murdered on day 1
• Fury
• Sonya
• Minerva (NPC)- killed on Day 0

[Fury]

Well, that rivalry is certainly dead over.
Anyway, we were sure it was not Dishman.

My fellow ambassadors, I am fully convinced that Norrel is a Sartanian Saboteur. He speaks like one, reminds me rather of Selene actually.

I have reread and anyone saying that Norrel is the asssassin is most likely viewing him as a threat who can find them out. (Norrel, note the fully convinced part) Which means:

VOTE Stabbity
(like I wanted to)

I also suspect that the choice to poison Ambassador Dishman (who had been actively helping) is to frame Sonya based on what I said about her previously, unless she is the assassin who simply changed her strategy based on what I said).

And speaking of Ambassadors, IS OUR AMBASSADOR SAGE DOING ANY WORK???

[Norrel]

Initial reactions and notes:

First:

D'Espana had an opportunity to double-lynch there at the last moment and did not take it.

There are two possibilities, then:

Possibility 1: D'Espana and Fury are maf partners and DE cancelled the double lynch in order to save him
Possibility 2: D'Espana is clear.

Second:

Dishman was gunning for both Penchant and Fury for much of the day and was killed, perhaps as a result of this. This is inconclusive evidence, however, as he was a coordinating force for the town and any mafia might want him dead.

Third:

That last post by Fury is an obvious argument to emotion. The fact that Stabbity is gunning for me is not evidence that he is scum, it is evidence that he is a critically thinking townie. Fury just attempted to coax an "Oh My God, You Suck" (OMGUS) vote from me. Again, not conclusive but it seems as if a lot of inconclusive evidence is piling on Fury.

This is in addition to his appeal to status quo from just before the update. I once thought he was town, new analysis came my way and it changed my mind. Tunnel vision is extremely harmful for town and you should not let your prior opinions influence your current ones.

Four:

We have either two mafiosos with decent traits or one mafioso with an astounding mix of traits. I am going to assume the former. In this case, we need to lynch correctly. At 2/6 this puts our random-shooting odds of victory at (2/6) * (1/4) = 8.33% chance, not taking into account bodyguards or brutalities or whatever.

If we can clear someone without confirmation, this turns into (2/5) * (1/4) = 10% chance of victory, assuming that the mafia shoot the clear.

If we can clear two people, this goes to (2/4) * (1/3) = 16%

So obviously our odds are pretty !@#$ty but if we can use process of elimination and clear two people we can almost double our odds.

I suspect a Fury/Ketchum. Fury/D'Espana or a Fury/Sonya pairing. If D'Espana is maf, must also be his partner, which means D'Espana/notfury is impossible.

As a result of D'Espana's incompatibility with anyone but Fury, Fury has the most possible scum pairings and he's probably our best bet.

I am willing to count Stabbity as a clear. Not sure but we need to start putting faith into someone because if we don't at least have one clear, we don't have a leader. If we don't have a leader, we're !@#$ed. Everyone needs to band together - if we split votes in an uncoordinated fashion, mafia can probably just force a lynch with Sonya absent.

If people are willing to also count me as a clear that'd up our odds by 6% from a Stabbity-only clear but I doubt it'll happen.

--------------------------

Due to the mass of circumstantial and statistical evidence pointing against Fury,

VOTE FURY.

[Fury]

Due to the mass of circumstantial and statistical evidence pointing against Fury,

VOTE FURY.

Your reasoning sucks. You've over-reasoned and lost the way.

[Norrel]

Your reasoning sucks. You've over-reasoned and lost the way.

Yep, because over-reasoning is a thing that exists.

Oh, wait.

How about you point out a specific flaw in my logic?

[Norrel]

Some math for the if Fury then D'Espana premise that Fury has high statistical odds of being scum:

With five people here any individual would normally have 4 possible scum pairings. With D'Espana not able to be paired with anyone but fury though, that sets

Possible fury combos = 5
Possible D'Espana combos = 1
Possible everyone else combos (each) = 4

Total possible combinations = 11 (Before anyone asks, I did not make a mistake by adding the above numbers together and !@#$ing it up. There are a total of 11 combinations if you disregard all DE<->NotFury pairs. Draw it up yourself or something.)

Odds that Fury is in a scum pair = 5/11 = 45.45%

Fury is, on a purely statistical basis where we assume that all pair possibilities are equally likely, (5/4) = 25% more likely than a person we have equal non-statistical evidence on. Meaning that unless you believe that your tells give you a better read than 25% statistical significance you should go with the odds.

Given that a metric !@#$ton of circumstantial evidence points towards Fury and relatively little towards anyone else this is basically just the statistical nail in the coffin.

Of course, if we assume that Stabbity is clear, this makes the likelihood that Fury is in a scum pair even higher. I can run the math if anyone wants. I doubt anyone does since it's pretty simple.

[Stabbity]

VOTE FURY. Sartanist scum through and through. There is only one true faith, The Holy Communion of Dodd.

[Norrel]

Edits to all the above math were made because I thought there were 5 players and not 6. The point still stands since we cannot afford to make a mistake today.

[Thomasgriff]

Boo I'm a ghost sent to haunt all that have wronged me.
I have laid a curse upon all still alive.
BEWARE