There is zero chance they will fight anyone in the North. That part of Dwilight will stay alliance locked forever. (I dont count wars vs Corsanctum , Libero "true" wars as that would be wars to assimilate their regions because they dont have many active players.)
Is that the fault of game design or players though? What stops them from fighting?
Ambition can establish reasonable cause for war. Even against allies. Claim a single region for one of your knights. State you'll accept peace after gaining that region.