In fairness, this is playing the game how it's meant to be played, where nobles will stake everything for rank, titles, and personal glory.
The game is not about doing silly things that you know will fail, or that you are pretty sure have a snowball's chance in hell of surviving more than about a week. You *can* do those things, but saying that the game is all about that is simply wrong.
Taking risks? Yes. Standing on the edge of the Grand Canyon and saying "I'm gonna risk it all and jump because hey, you never know, I might learn how to fly in the 10 seconds I'll have before I splatter my brains out on the rocks below."? Not so much.
From what I understand, this isn't about making bets and taking risks. Westmoor is going to lose the war. Badly. They are going to lose Oligarch. Apparently Armstrong is going to lose the title whether Sirion TOs the city, or Westmoor hands it over as part of a treaty. But there's no way in hell that Sirion is going to let him keep the city, either as a Margrave in Sirion, or as ruler of a banana republic snubbing his nose in Sirion's face. (Unless Armstrong has done the unimaginable and got Sirion's buy-in on this before seceding.)
This is a desperation move, with Armstrong hoping like crazy that he can fast talk someone into supporting him before either Westmoor *or* Sirion kicks his ass to the curb. I can't imagine that either of his neighbors will hesitate for one millisecond to put on their spiked boots to do the kicking.
