Is three people and a city enough to consider Farronite a realm? Perhaps they will get a few immigrants, but without a few rurals for scouts and food then I'm not sure it will last.
When it does begin to waver, I wonder how long until they abandon ship and let it go rogue, letting it go to Asylon. I think it is a rather appropriate way for it to end up, but wouldn't it amount to the same thing as merging all at once?