I can not say I agree with this argument. It has always been popularly held that it is far easier to lose one's self in a crowd. I think he most dangerous situation for an infil would be to attack in a low population region with only the knights/lord of that region present and all performing police work. This, I think would give the greatest chance of being caught as the soldiers should all know each other and the peasant population so well that a stranger, even in disguise, should stand out plenty.
I think the best opportunity for an infil would be to attack in a region with huge populations, and lots of troops including troops from various realms. With so many people it is already hard to spot the single disguised infil. With so many troops in the region who are unfamiliar to each other and the local guard force, things become even more challenging when trying to catch an infil.
Of course, this is assuming that my understanding of infiltrators is correct. I believe that the noble openly waltzes into a region and can be seen by all. The noble has probably provided an excuse fr his presence and has some official work to do. When that noble performs an infil action he disguises himself, sneaks out so no one knows he is not where he is supposed to be, does something shady, then returns back to where he is supposed to be and pretends he has been there all along.
This is also only addressing the odds of the infil being caught as he is traveling to the job and back and has nothing to do with the chances of the PC nobles present pinning the deed on him or not...
Yes, but game mechanics wise people want ways to mitigate the risk of infils. From a game mechanic standpoint one obvious way to do that is to allow increase CS to have an increased chance to capture them. Otherwise the best time to strike the enemy general is not when he is all alone in his estate, but when he is in the middle of the military camp marching.
You have to be careful with these things, it is easy to over simply the situation. Different infil actions would have different targets, different levels of risk etc. Burning down a warehouse for example, you could argue would be easy in big cities since there are more people around, blah blah. Conversely people would come back and say that since food is so important to cities, obviously their characters would make sure they are well guarded relative to other things in the city. In real life some military camps are relatively easy to infiltrate and lose yourself in the crowd, others have excellent security and procedures.
The game has to have a system that is relatively predictable, so the endless variables and considerations of real life need to be cut down in to a few easy to understand rules. In this case more CS = more risk. More CS performing police work = even bigger risk.
