If the threats would have worked they would have won the war with Caergoth and Suville... Why would they throw that away and gamble on taking out the CE?
That's short-term thinking. If you only consider the "now", then perhaps that viewpoint would work. It falls apart, though, as soon as you get past "today" and start looking at what happens "next week". I can think of several reasons why Carelia chose the path they did. (Keep in mind I'm trying to think of this IC from Carelia's position.)
- If Carelia goes along with CE and lets CE's bullying stand, then sure they "win" the current war. You are correct in that. But they also get a pissed off Caergoth/Suville for neighbors. And as soon as CE's back is turned, as everyone knew was about to happen because CE was marching north, Caergoth/Suville would almost certainly just resume the war. But this time big brother CE is busy, and can't come to Carelia's rescue. But this time their enemies are also bitter about having been strong-armed in the past. This time it will be even worse for Carelia.
- If Carelia lets CE force the peace, and it does hold, then what does Carelia do? A looooooong period of boring, enforced peace. That's really sure to be exciting. March to CE's aid to fight the northerners? What if they don't want to fight the northerners? And besides, they still have to worry about those shifty former-Abingtonians who might move to attack them any day now!
- Carelia almost certainly did not want to be seen as the newest "CE buffer realm". (Speaking strictly from an IC viewpoint, here, not making accusations...) By allowing CE to enforce the peace for them, Carelia appears to be in CE's pocket. Which the leaders of Carelia apparently did not want to be. I mean, who wants to be a lackey who survives only at the sufferance of a big brother?
- Organizing the movement against CE turns your former enemies into your allies. Now you have more friends, instead of mroe enemies.
- If it had worked, then Carelia comes out of it even stronger. Their new allies in Suville are stronger because of the land that Carelia gives them. (And are stronger allies for because of the new shared experiences of having worked together.) Carelia is stronger because of the new land they take from CE. CE, the realm that has tried to meddle in their affairs, is now weaker, and less capable of meddling in their affairs again in the future. Overall, Carelia comes out of it a bit stronger in absolute terms, and much stronger in relative terms, as well as more influential for having engineered the downfall of CE.
Sure it was a risk, and in the end it didn't pay off. But if you want to be big, you to think big, and play big.
Was there an OOC consideration for the war? Maybe. Who wouldn't want to be the one to arrange the war that takes down the biggest, most successful empire in the game? It makes a great story. But if you're thinking that it was an OOC dislike of CE that drove the war, then perhaps what you're really seeing is an IC hatred that you're projecting onto the player.
