Which is so obvious to anyone with half a brain that I would be very surprised if Carelia survives for long after this war ends, barring any changes from the current status quo of the war. I predict that it will go the way of Falasan, and ASI (you'll have to pardon me if the comparisons are bad, I was relatively uninvolved in AT when those events actually occurred). Some reason will be contrived to put the realm out of its misery.
That assessment is contingent on the South staying out of the rest of the war though, which is by no means certain.
The Falasan comparison seems apt to me. Falasan was left with one duchy at the end of the war with Tara/CE and a CE colony in its largest city prior to the war. Once Coria was firmly established it was only a matter of time before a reason was found to get rid of what was left of Falasan.
