No, they have not. But they still have a chance to get it together. There's still some time left in winter, and then time for armies to march.
As for the effects of winter, it slows everything down. No one really marches to attack in winter. Also, Golden Farrow is apparently starving. Pop keeps dropping.
We've been focusing on getting some of our regions back and retrenching a bit. When travel opens up, we'll no doubt be back in the saddle.