BattleMaster Community
BattleMaster => Locals => Dwilight => Topic started by: Azerax on March 01, 2013, 02:40:10 PM
-
Just some market research on your opinion about the CURRENT food situation on Dwilight.
-
First vote! ;D
My region (Askileon) is a significant net food consumer. At present, it is well fed by the buy orders I place and the sell orders I accept.
However, in the recent past, this was not the case. The Lords of Luria Nova have had to be browbeaten into the notion that it is a good idea for them to sell their food at all, let alone for reasonable prices. The previous Banker of the realm took a very laissez faire approach, and as a result, Askileon starved for a time due to there simply being no food on the market.
The current Banker has cracked down on this type of behaviour, and with the Judge backing him, has had recalcitrant Lords punished with fines. This caused something of a kerfuffle at the last regular Banker election, but apparently a plurality of nobles in the realm supported the new Banker's realm-centric stance, even despite his often rather abrasive manner.
-
Via, my wonderful city is not producing at all, but within the borders of Asylon we produce enough food to keep us all fed. That includes my city. And for example, I see 8-10 sell orders that I will pick up once I get back to Via increasing my storage yet again.
-
First vote! ;D
My region (Askileon) is a significant net food consumer. At present, it is well fed by the buy orders I place and the sell orders I accept.
However, in the recent past, this was not the case. The Lords of Luria Nova have had to be browbeaten into the notion that it is a good idea for them to sell their food at all, let alone for reasonable prices. The previous Banker of the realm took a very laissez faire approach, and as a result, Askileon starved for a time due to there simply being no food on the market.
The current Banker has cracked down on this type of behaviour, and with the Judge backing him, has had recalcitrant Lords punished with fines. This caused something of a kerfuffle at the last regular Banker election, but apparently a plurality of nobles in the realm supported the new Banker's realm-centric stance, even despite his often rather abrasive manner.
I'm the Banker in question here, and this same issue will be true for every net food consumer in Luria Nova -- Poryatown, Askileon, Giask, and their doughnut regions...
-
Was steward for Fatexna for a while (the main food producing region), and food sold easily since the divides were starving. Now I'm in Nyuushi and buy orders are all over the place, so once I get the stats together I'll be able to start selling surplus. The food market is probably going to be my only income for quite some time (aside from handouts).
-
The famine and war before in Asylon turned out pretty good for Asylon in the end. We produce ample food and only half the population and still produce good gold per region. Genocide has its up side!
-
Can a dev post the food surplus (+ or -) for each region in Dwilight?
I'll take this map ( http://wiki.battlemaster.org/wiki/Dwilight/Geographic_Features/Map ) and overlay the numbers and look for giant holes.
It would also be great to have the current food stored per region, this will help show food mobility.
-
Can a dev post the food surplus (+ or -) for each region in Dwilight?
I'll take this map ( http://wiki.battlemaster.org/wiki/Dwilight/Geographic_Features/Map ) and overlay the numbers and look for giant holes.
It would also be great to have the current food stored per region, this will help show food mobility.
Post... no, that doesn't sound like a good idea. If you have access to the dev server there is an admin page that shows all the information you could want, and more. Hop on IRC and we can talk about it.
-
don't have access to dev but I'll hop into irc after work in about 7 hours.
One thing that I am curious of is if a specific scenario exists on Dwilight where, due to distances, in order for food to be fully mobile, it may have to be traded twice to reach it's needed destination.
-
One thing that I am curious of is if a specific scenario exists on Dwilight where, due to distances, in order for food to be fully mobile, it may have to be traded twice to reach it's needed destination.
The distance between Flowrestowne and Echiur is 2813 miles going through Libidizedd, probably closer to 2000 miles as the crow flies, and that's the short dimension of Dwilight. The distance from North to South is probably closer to 3000 miles.
A Trader with ~55% skill has a range of 650 miles.
So, yes, these scenarios exist, but it's not like it would take dozens of hops either.
-
The distance between Flowrestowne and Echiur is 2813 miles going through Libidizedd, probably closer to 2000 miles as the crow flies, and that's the short dimension of Dwilight. The distance from North to South is probably closer to 3000 miles.
A Trader with ~55% skill has a range of 650 miles.
So, yes, these scenarios exist, but it's not like it would take dozens of hops either.
Yes, but that would also require you to have a decent number of traders as well....
-
Those two people who can't find people to buy their food should just contact D'Hara... pretty obvious you'll find buyers there, most would even be willing to travel to your region to pick it up.
-
Those two people who can't find people to buy their food should just contact D'Hara... pretty obvious you'll find buyers there, most would even be willing to travel to your region to pick it up.
Yes, but would you then sell the food to someone else who needs it , considering your realm needs a lot of food.
-
Yes, but would you then sell the food to someone else who needs it , considering your realm needs a lot of food.
Are you talking about Machiavel specifically?
-
No, d'hara in general.
-
Yes, but would you then sell the food to someone else who needs it , considering your realm needs a lot of food.
I don't get it.
-
D'Hara is light on Rurals, yes? Then that means your realm has to buy more food from imports to make up for the lack of domestic food production. Which in turn means that there likely isn't going to be much leftover for export. What isn't to get?
-
D'Hara is light on Rurals, yes? Then that means your realm has to buy more food from imports to make up for the lack of domestic food production. Which in turn means that there likely isn't going to be much leftover for export. What isn't to get?
Paisland now appears to produce a surplus... this is just since a few days ago. I was running a food deficit before then.
If food is sold to a D'Haran region with a surplus, it'd then sell it to a needy region, obviously.
And yes, the odds of it then being exported is quite low. I don't get why this needs saying, or what it has to do with what I said?
-
Paisland now appears to produce a surplus... this is just since a few days ago. I was running a food deficit before then.
If food is sold to a D'Haran region with a surplus, it'd then sell it to a needy region, obviously.
And yes, the odds of it then being exported is quite low. I don't get why this needs saying, or what it has to do with what I said?
+1, I am totally confused by this.
-
It has to do with transferring food from one side of the island to the other, something that D'Hara is well placed to do, but is rather hard to do because of your own food needs.
-
Isn't D'Hara supposed to have food problems? Their city-to-rural ratio has ALWAYS been terrible.
-
I'm not saying it shouldn't. I'm saying that using them as an example of transferring food from one side of the continent to the other makes no sense.
-
And to be clear, that explanation was to everybody in general, not to Chenier specifically. Also, finding a buyer for food on Dwilight isn't the problem. It's finding a fricking seller.
-
It has to do with transferring food from one side of the island to the other, something that D'Hara is well placed to do, but is rather hard to do because of your own food needs.
What are you getting at? That somehow D'hara needing food is hurting the food situation of Dwilight because we try to feed ourselves instead of starving ourselves for the betterment of the continent? I don't get your point.
-
It has to do with transferring food from one side of the island to the other, something that D'Hara is well placed to do, but is rather hard to do because of your own food needs.
Okay, sure... But when did I ever say I wanted to do that? Two people voted on the polls that they had food and couldn't manage to sell it. Which I find ridiculous, because EVERYONE should know that odds are, you could sell it to D'Hara. Failing to sell food on Dwilight is the result of not trying very hard at all. There are so many buyers that most would do all of the travelling for it themselves.
And to be clear, that explanation was to everybody in general, not to Chenier specifically. Also, finding a buyer for food on Dwilight isn't the problem. It's finding a fricking seller.
Two people, according to the polls, would disagree. Hence my comment.
-
I'm still convinced that ANY realm on ANY continent that has 4 cities, and 1 stronghold, while only having 3 Rural regions SHOULD have irreparable food problems which make it almost impossible to exist functionally as a realm. On top of that, you have 2 badlands regions in your bunch of 13 regions. So, your realm should pretty much not be possibly able to function. The food situation no matter what the devs code will not make D'Hara a realm which can conceivably exist upon what it has without them doubling in size and not taking a single extra city.
-
What are you getting at? That somehow D'hara needing food is hurting the food situation of Dwilight because we try to feed ourselves instead of starving ourselves for the betterment of the continent? I don't get your point.
I'm not saying that D'Hara needing food is hurting the food situation on dwilight. I'm trying to explain why getting food from a largely food-positive realm (Morek) to a relatively food-negative realm on the other landmass is so hard to do. It wouldn't matter if it was D'Hara or some other realm, you'd still need to go through a middleman in most cases unless you were able to get a trader out to the other realm.
-
I'm not saying that D'Hara needing food is hurting the food situation on dwilight. I'm trying to explain why getting food from a largely food-positive realm (Morek) to a relatively food-negative realm on the other landmass is so hard to do. It wouldn't matter if it was D'Hara or some other realm, you'd still need to go through a middleman in most cases unless you were able to get a trader out to the other realm.
I agree on this point. However, I don't think that such long food transfers are supposed to be the expected norm on Dwilight.
Luria Nova, Terran, and Aurvandil's region make up makes them much more food position, so why couldn't you just purchase food from them? If the answer is diplomatic relations, then that means the problem isn't in the game mechanics.
-
Terran hovers just over the unsafe line in regards to food supply. So whether not they'd be willing to sell depends on how efficient they are at feeding their cities.
-
Luria Nova, Terran, and Aurvandil's region make up makes them much more food position, so why couldn't you just purchase food from them? If the answer is diplomatic relations, then that means the problem isn't in the game mechanics.
LN hasn't had the ability to safely export food for a few months, after the long winter and then the east pastureland drought. Right now I'm in the process of making sure we have enough food for the winter, but damn do we move food slowly.
-
I'm still convinced that ANY realm on ANY continent that has 4 cities, and 1 stronghold, while only having 3 Rural regions SHOULD have irreparable food problems which make it almost impossible to exist functionally as a realm. On top of that, you have 2 badlands regions in your bunch of 13 regions. So, your realm should pretty much not be possibly able to function. The food situation no matter what the devs code will not make D'Hara a realm which can conceivably exist upon what it has without them doubling in size and not taking a single extra city.
I disagree. We should be able to import from other realms. Constantly. With great effort.
We were doing quite fine before food was intentionally deleted from warehouses and food production across the continent was manually turned down.
I never asked for D'Hara to be self-sufficient. Heck, I think D'Hara would be a lot less fun if it were. But I do want there to be plenty of food production on the island so that all realms on the map, with a bit of trade, can be fed.
I'm not saying that D'Hara needing food is hurting the food situation on dwilight. I'm trying to explain why getting food from a largely food-positive realm (Morek) to a relatively food-negative realm on the other landmass is so hard to do. It wouldn't matter if it was D'Hara or some other realm, you'd still need to go through a middleman in most cases unless you were able to get a trader out to the other realm.
When I went to Corsanctum, Morek, Swordfell, and Luria Nova, I only saw like 4 sell offers, 3 of which were restricted to realm-only, the last one was for 100 gold per 200 bushels and I only saw it for a few hours. Even the "largely food-positive" realms don't have much to sell anymore. Because there just ain't such a thing as a "largely food-positive" realm anymore. This doesn't create interaction, it just makes every realm no longer able to have trade at any meaningful levels with other realms.
-
I never asked for D'Hara to be self-sufficient. Heck, I think D'Hara would be a lot less fun if it were. But I do want there to be plenty of food production on the island so that all realms on the map, with a bit of trade, can be fed.
They can. Dwilight currently produces 226% of its demand. Yes, it is autumn. But even considering that, the island produces a steady 13% surplus of food on average. And with the amount currently in granaries, it could feed itself for 24 weeks if all food production dropped to zero this instant.
There is more than enough food around. If you can't find any food, it is not because it doesn't exist.
-
They can. Dwilight currently produces 226% of its demand. Yes, it is autumn. But even considering that, the island produces a steady 13% surplus of food on average. And with the amount currently in granaries, it could feed itself for 24 weeks if all food production dropped to zero this instant.
There is more than enough food around. If you can't find any food, it is not because it doesn't exist.
But that's not really very meaningful.
First of all, for a realm to want to sell food, they're going to need way more than a 13% surplus.
Second of all, the way to ensure that food will be traded is to have areas that have a serious overall deficit and areas that have a significant (>75%) surplus near each other, but not near enough that it's easy for one realm to control them both.
The problem with using food as a trade good is twofold:
1) Realms that can't feed their regions (one way or another) die. Very quickly. Starvation is incredibly harsh, and there is absolutely no way to mitigate it other than providing all the food every region needs every day.
2) Because of this, any attempts to rebalance the food supply into something like I mentioned above will fail badly—because the realm in the deficit area won't live long enough to buy food from the surplus area.
The solution (or part of it, at least) is what I mentioned in the dev thread: allow for three levels of food distribution, half, normal, and double.
This, combined with a slower descent into utter starvation (and a quicker climb out of it), would make food no longer the "all-or-nothing" proposition it is today—and thus make it possible to consider trading it, even when you don't have a year's worth of stockpile and a 100% surplus.
-
They can. Dwilight currently produces 226% of its demand. Yes, it is autumn. But even considering that, the island produces a steady 13% surplus of food on average. And with the amount currently in granaries, it could feed itself for 24 weeks if all food production dropped to zero this instant.
There is more than enough food around. If you can't find any food, it is not because it doesn't exist.
Does this consider rot? Troop consumption? Monster consumption? Looting? Zuma demands? Seasons that can only be bad or average? I assume it does not. Not to mention lords that can't be bothered to actually sell their surplus.
Assuming all food in in granaries, that's 1% rot per day. And no bad seasons anywhere, and that there aren't any troops, and that the Zuma don't exist, and no hordes spawn, and that everyone's at peace. You start the year in the first day of summer (which is where the surplus starts), with a balance of 0 bushels. Continent-wide, consumption is 100 bushels a day while producing value is, on average, 113 bushels. By the end of the year, you will have produced 9492 bushels of food, consumed 8400 bushels of food, and will have seen 937 bushels of food rot, leaving you with 155 bushels more than you started with.
So assuming the best of scenarios (which is far off reality), Dwilight doesn't produce a 13% surplus on average, but a 1,84% surplus once you include rot.
1,84% continental surplus average, without including food not stored in granaries and rotting faster, food eaten by troops, monsters, or the zuma, and the bad seasons people keep having. Is it that much of a surprise that food is so hard to come by?
(Note: the largest surplus on hand would be on the last day of Summer, with 26 day's worth of consumption, without considering rot. With this scenario, over the year 8% of the food produced rots.)
-
Ok, let me put this in stronger numbers:
There are currently over 100,000 bushels stored in the granaries.
There are less than 2,000 bushels in offers on the market. That includes "realm only" and all other limited trades.
Anyone who thinks that the existence of food is the issue and not the fact that existing food is not being sold is IMHO living in a fantasy world.
-
Ok, let me put this in stronger numbers:
There are currently over 100,000 bushels stored in the granaries.
There are less than 2,000 bushels in offers on the market. That includes "realm only" and all other limited trades.
Anyone who thinks that the existence of food is the issue and not the fact that existing food is not being sold is IMHO living in a fantasy world.
Is it much of a surprise if only 2% of the food is put on the market, when the yearly surplus is of 1,63%? of what's produced?
Also, what's on the market, at any given time, is not representative anyways. Especially since it's winter right now.
-
It is fall currently...
-
It is fall currently...
It is?
I could have sworn... Well I guess that explains why my region is making a surplus all of a sudden.
Still, that's 2% of the food being on sale, for a continent that produces less than 2% more than what it consumes once rot is factored in. People hording food isn't the problem. That 98% of the food isn't on sale is NORMAL. It's Fall, after all, people need to stock up for winter.
-
I find myself in nearly complete agreement with Chenier. 13% surplus is nowhere near enough to allow an active food market. The cumulative rot from gathering enough to sell, as well as the amount that rots in stockpiles as a matter of routine, probably takes care of most of that surplus.
-
And then there's all the regions that haven't fully grown back yet from the Long Winter.
-
Because correct me if I am wrong, and your statement that Dwilight produces 13% more food than it requires does factor in rot. 'cause as I said, otherwise, once rot is factored in, it produces at most a 1,84% surplus.
Huge stockpiles don't change anything to this, because Dwilight's consumption is also huge. At about 2,200,000 population, Dwilight consumes 4400 bushels a day. So if I use this number in my previous calculations, to give a number that sounds closer to the real thing, I get the following data for Dwilight:
Yearly food production: 417,648 bushels
Yearly food consumption: 369,600 bushels
Yearly food rot: 34,513 bushels
Yearly food surplus: 13,535 bushels
And this is assuming the best. Thus, without factoring rot, 100,000 bushels of stocked up food means enough food to cover in the consumption through 1,08 seasons, in other words, barely enough to go through winter. Without factoring in population growth, bad harvests, and everything else I've mentioned earlier, because population is in steady growth and a lot of cities are still nowhere near their max population.
-
Yearly food surplus: 13,535 bushels
By your own calculation, people on Dwilight have been stockpiling food for almost 8 years to reach the current storage. That is impossible.
-
By your own calculation, people on Dwilight have been stockpiling food for almost 8 years to reach the current storage. That is impossible.
Impossible at the current rate, yes. However, I do believe you have forgotten that you had the food production lowered... which means that most of that storage was from before you lowered production.
-
Dwilight currently produces 226% of its demand.
This isn't accurate. Dwilight, in autumn right now, produces roughly 150% of demand. Based on seasonal modifiers, this amount changes to:
- Summer: 125%
- Spring: 93%
- Winter: 63%
This comes out to a yearly production of about 108% of demand.
This is much, much worse than the 13% figure being quoted in this thread and is the real reason droughts and winter are so serious.
By your own calculation, people on Dwilight have been stockpiling food for almost 8 years to reach the current storage. That is impossible.
Impossible at the current rate, yes. However, I do believe you have forgotten that you had the food production lowered... which means that most of that storage was from before you lowered production.
Seasons are the confounding factor here. As described above, these stocks come from the recent summer and now autumn. The island, as a whole, produces extremely large surpluses in these two seasons, but is at a deficit in the other two. It is through the two seasons of deficit that the summer/autumn stocks are consumed, and at the end of the seasonal year we can expect a surplus of about 5000 bushels per year. 5000 bushels, in the face of drought, is not much.
-
Impossible at the current rate, yes. However, I do believe you have forgotten that you had the food production lowered... which means that most of that storage was from before you lowered production.
This.
Also, we aren't at day 1 of summer, we are at day 9 of Fall. Which, by my calculations, would mean 67,769 more bushels at at day 1 of summer. 32,231 additional bushels of food would be reached within 7 days.
So really, you have 7 days of Fall production in surplus of what you'd have if Dwilight had had all food removed from it on the first day of summer. Which was inherited by the previous systems, and by the fact that consumption probably rose significantly faster than production (it would take 14 days of summer harvest to accumulate a surplus of 32,000 with the current population, but after the long winter, it would have probably taken a lot less time to produce such a surplus).
My calculations really aren't anything fancy or complicated. I just made an excel spreadsheet, with days 1 to 84, took the values you gave me, punched them in, added the seasonal modifiers (1 for summer, 2 for fall, .25 for winter, .75 for spring) in 1% rot per day. No magical numbers, just deductions based off the consumption of 1 bushel per 500 peasants per day, 113% average surplus before rot, and 220,000 population as according to the stats page for a week or two ago.
This isn't accurate. Dwilight, in autumn right now, produces roughly 150% of demand. Based on seasonal modifiers, this amount changes to:
- Summer: 125%
- Spring: 93%
- Winter: 63%
This comes out to a yearly production of about 108% of demand.
This is much, much worse than the 13% figure being quoted in this thread and is the real reason droughts and winter are so serious.
Seasons are the confounding factor here. As described above, these stocks come from the recent summer and now autumn. The island, as a whole, produces extremely large surpluses in these two seasons, but is at a deficit in the other two. It is through the two seasons of deficit that the summer/autumn stocks are consumed, and at the end of the seasonal year we can expect a surplus of about 5000 bushels per year. 5000 bushels, in the face of drought, is not much.
If I take a 108% scenario, pre-rot, that gives me a yearly surplus of only 1,836 bushels per year, instead of 13,535.
Yearly food production: 399,168 bushels
Yearly food consumption: 369,600 bushels
Yearly food rot: 27,732 bushels
Yearly food surplus: 1,836 bushels
-
Oh, and I toyed with some numbers... If pre-rot, Dwilight produces 107,2% of what it consumes, that means a continental deficit of 35 bushels by the end of the year once rot is factored in.
And that, again, is assuming 100% production, no population increases, no looting, no troops, no Zuma, no monsters, no droughts, and all food being stored in granaries.
-
There was an error in my maths: It's 250% of demand, 125% of demand, 93% of demand, 62% of demand, or 177% of demand over the course of a year.
(The error was I used net production when I shouldn't have)
Sorry, Tom.
-
There was an error in my maths: It's 250% of demand, 125% of demand, 93% of demand, 62% of demand, or 177% of demand over the course of a year.
(The error was I used net production when I shouldn't have)
Sorry, Tom.
Gah, where are all the numbers coming from? 113%? 108%? And how does 177% come from the rest of these numbers?
125% summer production of demand gives me:
Food production: 462,000 bushels
Food consumption: 369,600 bushels
Rot: 50,789 bushels
Yearly surplus: 41,611
But I must, again, insist that this is under the perfect conditions that we absolutely do not have, and zero population growth (which is also absolutely not to the case). Also note that the yearly surplus value is for a first given year with 0 bushels stored to begin with, and that since the starting warehouse value was greater than zero, the surplus production is lower than given in this model, for even under perfect conditions, there is a theoretical cap to how much food can be maintained on Dwilight, because eventually rot value will be greater than the surplus production value. For example, if Dwilight starts with 75,000 bushels on the first day of summer, instead of 0, it should end the year with 821 bushels LESS than it started with, as per ban's numbers of 125% of demand on summer production. Because with 75,000 bushels in the warehouses to begin with, rot (under, again, optimal conditions) reaches 20% of the yearly production.
Ignoring rot when making predictions and adjusting food production values on Dwilight is really a big mistake, imo. 1%, daily, is HUGE. With 75,000 bushels to start the year off, Dwilight would lose an average of 1,109 bushels of food to rot per day.
Last Winter was harsh... I'll be damned if this winter doesn't have a great number of harsh surprises for us as well.
'cause if I assume your new production values, and Tom's 100,000 bushels on hand on the 8th day of Fall, by the end of Spring, the average warehouse value per region would be of, at most, 248 bushels. Under perfect conditions and perfect distribution.
-
If food production doesn't rise, it'd take 200 days for Dwilight to completely run out of food, under perfect conditions.
Google Drive Share Link for Dwilight Food Predictions (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4Ja4LBEKg-8aU9GRFVlQ0w3U2c/edit?usp=sharing)
If you see any errors, or have questions about any of the equations or numbers, feel free to speak up.
My goal, by doing this, was not to manipulate. It was to provide the best tool I could possibly build to help get a better estimate of Dwilight's food situation, as the numbers that are always given always seem exaggerated and do not consider fundamentally significant data like rot.
Nobody commented on my spreadsheet. Do you spot any mistakes in it?
Because even if I consider a 5,95 bushels per day increase in food production, the model is still unsustainable on the long-term, and only leaves Dwilight with an average of 200 bushels per region at the end of spring.
Assuming perfect weather
Assuming no decreases in production
Assuming no troops
Assuming no Zuma
Assuming no monsters
Assuming all food is stored in granaries
Assuming no looting
I'm totally fine with the idea of some regions or realms starving as the result of improper management, or even as the result of extremely unlikely conjunctures (continent-wide drought). However, I find extremely frustration the massive starvation of a realm as a result of food being arbitrarily made scarcer without even the least concern for such elemental variables as rot and growth. I know that my realm will implode, and there's nothing we can do other than choosing to starve our own cities to spare other cities, which is utterly ridiculous, because the food just doesn't exist on the continent to feed everyone.
-
I know that my realm will implode, and there's nothing we can do
We are taking over rurals. And, you know, we could still convince other realms to feed us.
-
I think Chénier's point was that it's not a problem specific to D'Hara. There's no way out of it for almost every realm.
-
We are taking over rurals. And, you know, we could still convince other realms to feed us.
Doesn't matter, those rurals don't pop out of thin air, they are included in the continental-wide food production stats. They also come late, with atrocious production levels. And even rurals, in winter, produce a shortage of food, if Maeotis is of any guidance.
And we can't convince others to feed us, if no one has enough food to do so. How many bushels do people like having per region as a safety buffer? If it's anywhere over 200, we are screwed.
I think Chénier's point was that it's not a problem specific to D'Hara. There's no way out of it for almost every realm.
Under perfect distribution, it would end up affecting everyone, and Dwilight would implode. However, as we don't have that, there is no way D'Hara can stave off continuous repeats of the Long Winter, because we are the first ones affected by any rarity of food.
-
those rurals don't pop out of thin air, they are included in the continental-wide food production stats.
If I understand correctly, your stats show that not all cities can be at full pop at the same time. If they are, even with perfect production and distribution there is going to be starvation. The strongest will hold the food for themselves, and the weakest will see their city starve.
That doesn't mean there is going to be a spiral to complete starvation. Once enough commoners die, we should be fine. Well, at least as long as it's not your commoners that died.
-
Well, at least as long as it's not your commoners that died.
Except that, as he points out, it will almost always be his commoners who died, given D'Hara's structural food situation. So while you may be right that Dwilight won't implode due to this, from his perspective, it may not matter much. ;D
-
Except that, as he points out, it will almost always be his commoners who died, given D'Hara's structural food situation. So while you may be right that Dwilight won't implode due to this, from his perspective, it may not matter much. ;D
Well, yes, see previous comment.
-
If I understand correctly, your stats show that not all cities can be at full pop at the same time. If they are, even with perfect production and distribution there is going to be starvation. The strongest will hold the food for themselves, and the weakest will see their city starve.
That doesn't mean there is going to be a spiral to complete starvation. Once enough commoners die, we should be fine. Well, at least as long as it's not your commoners that died.
I do not have the data to determine how many cities would need to be left rogue for Dwilight to become self-sustaining.
I played years trying to build up a realm that was difficult to feed, and now, for no reason other than simply not caring to consider fundamental variables in the equation, the continent was manually altered so that it is no longer difficult, but instead impossible. And I find this very frustrating. Because no one on the dev team will point out any errors in my calculations, nor provide food estimates that consider, at the very least, food rot.
-
I'm just eyeballing the work that Chénier's done, and I don't know what qualifies as an "implosion", but it's definitely more than three realms by my estimation.
-
Just saying, I see D'hara getting out of this Winter just fine. Some bankers actually do their job so thanks for all the confidence Chenier. ;)
-
Just saying, I see D'hara getting out of this Winter just fine. Some bankers actually do their job so thanks for all the confidence Chenier. ;)
the point
---------
you
-
Chenier,
I will look at your spreadhsheet sometime next week. Mostly because I like spredsheets.
No time for it right now.
-
the point
---------
you
Umm, what is that supposed to mean?
-
He's saying you missed the point.
-
He's saying you missed the point.
O, I know that. That was the just saying part, as in it didn't really matter to this but i was just saying it. Thanks btw.
-
Just saying, I see D'hara getting out of this Winter just fine. Some bankers actually do their job so thanks for all the confidence Chenier. ;)
D'Hara will survive winter if:
1) We have successfully bought an incredible amount of food somehow (which likely would result in another realm starving instead of us)
or
2) You are somehow able to create food out of thin air.
Maybe if I think a little harder, I can make a few deductions off the statistics page to try figure out what our food production is and will be. But I can tell you that D'Hara, between now and summer, should consume about 13,250 bushels. I don't know how things are outside of the duchy of Paisly, but if they have that food, they'll have to be sharing with us.
-
Does the 108% surplus take into account the rogue regions in the northwest, and all the rogue regions for that matter? Sure, "it's the players fault for not conquering those food-producing regions", but some allowance should be made, just the same.
-
I know the food situation in Golden Farrow was a pain in the butt. I can only imagine what it is like in D'hara. Perhaps we just need to find a way to work within the system we have. The D'haran cities including Paisly should just be abandoned. I know this isn't really fair or even realistic. But if not them, then 3 other cities being abandoned would solve the problems.
Morek was a good food producer but then they took Nifelheim but Astrum got some of the rurals. Then they colonized Flowrestown so their food surplus will eventually supply them. If we are having such huge food problems now, its only going to get worse. There are several cities who aren't at their max population just yet. Golden Farrow, Eichur, Flowrestown, Darfix, Port Raviel, Port Nebel, Paisly, Mimer and Unterstrom are all underpopulated. Plus a few more that I didn't list.
If production is 108%-113% of max Dwilight population then things might be salvageable. If however those production figures are based on current populations then we are in for some real pain.
You might just be better off abandoning the cities for now and stockpile food in your townslands. Above all else, don't invest too much gold into the infrastructure of the cities on D'hara. They are going to be the first cities to go rogue from starvation if things get worse on the island.
A 5% increase in food production across the island might be nice. If only to see what changes in the trading stats occur. The stats from the tracker should be able to show us what kind of difference that extra 5% makes.
-
Just let your realm die.
Thank you for this insightful solution. We'll be sure to consider it.
A 5% increase in food production across the island might be nice. If only to see what changes in the trading stats occur. The stats from the tracker should be able to show us what kind of difference that extra 5% makes.
If I knew what the continent's max population was, and what Tom considers an adequate surplus value at the beginning of summer, I could propose a maximum total food output that would, with rot considered, tend to fluctuate around the desired value after a few years, so that realms could intentionally make others starve by actively going out to buy food from other realms that they don't need themselves, but that they can't cause others to starve just by not bothering themselves with trade (unless an incredibly large number of lords also don't).
-
Looked over your spreadsheets.
Not sure what to make of'em.
What value are you using to get total food production and population, if I may ask?
-
D'Hara will survive winter if:
1) We have successfully bought an incredible amount of food somehow (which likely would result in another realm starving instead of us)
or
2) You are somehow able to create food out of thin air.
Maybe if I think a little harder, I can make a few deductions off the statistics page to try figure out what our food production is and will be. But I can tell you that D'Hara, between now and summer, should consume about 13,250 bushels. I don't know how things are outside of the duchy of Paisly, but if they have that food, they'll have to be sharing with us.
Obviously not two, so its one. Also, pretty sure you have a massive overestimate on the amount of food needed, but I will check later to be sure.
-
Looked over your spreadsheets.
Not sure what to make of'em.
What value are you using to get total food production and population, if I may ask?
Statistics page. As for base food production, I used the fact that I was told by devs that Dwilight has a 125% supply ratio, so I considered how much the total population of the continent consumes (total pop / 500), and multipled by 1,25 to know how much food they produced daily. Population growth was also based off the statistics, by subtracting the oldest value to the newest value and dividing by the number of days elapsed (82 by my count). By calculating a growth in peaks that seemed normal (i.e. not the lowest value to highest value), I looked at the food production stats and estimated a 5,95 bushel per day growth to food production.
I used stacked histograms all the time when using the stats page, to work with total values.
Obviously not two, so its one. Also, pretty sure you have a massive overestimate on the amount of food needed, but I will check later to be sure.
Just off the top of my head, I think we have about 52 days left to summer? 107866 population. So, if we ignore population growth (which I had factored in) and rot (which I had not), we get a formula of (107,866 / 500) * 52 = food required = 11,218.
I think it was you that massively underestimated the amount of food needed. I'm sure you bought a tonload of food, but I'm just skeptical that you could get your hands on this much.
-
If I knew what the continent's max population was
2,911,100. Current population is 2,280,764.
-
Statistics page. As for base food production, I used the fact that I was told by devs that Dwilight has a 125% supply ratio, so I considered how much the total population of the continent consumes (total pop / 500), and multipled by 1,25 to know how much food they produced daily. Population growth was also based off the statistics, by subtracting the oldest value to the newest value and dividing by the number of days elapsed (82 by my count). By calculating a growth in peaks that seemed normal (i.e. not the lowest value to highest value), I looked at the food production stats and estimated a 5,95 bushel per day growth to food production.
I used stacked histograms all the time when using the stats page, to work with total values.
Just off the top of my head, I think we have about 52 days left to summer? 107866 population. So, if we ignore population growth (which I had factored in) and rot (which I had not), we get a formula of (107,866 / 500) * 52 = food required = 11,218.
I think it was you that massively underestimated the amount of food needed. I'm sure you bought a tonload of food, but I'm just skeptical that you could get your hands on this much.
So you didn't use total Dwilight production, you used total CURRENT production? Stats page doesn't give you 100% production values?
-
Just off the top of my head, I think we have about 52 days left to summer? 107866 population. So, if we ignore population growth (which I had factored in) and rot (which I had not), we get a formula of (107,866 / 500) * 52 = food required = 11,218.
I think it was you that massively underestimated the amount of food needed. I'm sure you bought a tonload of food, but I'm just skeptical that you could get your hands on this much.
Well thats a very misleading number. I believe that we need that much, but you make it sound like we need to buy that much. Unfortunately, I can't use the food report to check the numbers for awhile, as far as checking total production values with the seasonal changes to check how much of a deficit we will have, as I am sailing up to Iashalur.
-
So you didn't use total Dwilight production, you used total CURRENT production? Stats page doesn't give you 100% production values?
I used current production only to determine food production growth, for I have no idea what the food production graph actually means. I did assume, however, that the 125% production ratio was meant on current production, and not maximum production/maximum consumption, which may have been a mistake. My production values are taken from the 125%, from Ban, and from the (population's) consumption value, which is easy to determine.
Well thats a very misleading number. I believe that we need that much, but you make it sound like we need to buy that much. Unfortunately, I can't use the food report to check the numbers for awhile, as far as checking total production values with the seasonal changes to check how much of a deficit we will have, as I am sailing up to Iashalur.
I'm not convinced it's so misleading. Not much longer left to Fall, then we drop to 25% before going up to 75% production. About 80% of the days left before summer have a production modifier below 100%, which in itself is also insufficient. Because at 25%, even rural regions like Maeotis will consume more than they produce. And then there's rot, especially since many of our regions lack granaries since the Long Winter broke them all apart.
What I gave you was pure consumption, without the production. I don't have access to the production values, you do. Maybe you can estimate how much food the realm will produce in the next 52 days or so?
Typically, ignoring rurals would seriously be misleading. But in D'Hara, with our granary problems, rarity of rurals, and poor condition of most of them, it's not as bad. But yea, as I said, please send me all of the realm's production values, so I can put them in my realm-level model and crunch a few more numbers.
-
I'm not convinced it's so misleading. Not much longer left to Fall, then we drop to 25% before going up to 75% production. About 80% of the days left before summer have a production modifier below 100%, which in itself is also insufficient. Because at 25%, even rural regions like Maeotis will consume more than they produce. And then there's rot, especially since many of our regions lack granaries since the Long Winter broke them all apart.
What I gave you was pure consumption, without the production. I don't have access to the production values, you do. Maybe you can estimate how much food the realm will produce in the next 52 days or so?
Typically, ignoring rurals would seriously be misleading. But in D'Hara, with our granary problems, rarity of rurals, and poor condition of most of them, it's not as bad. But yea, as I said, please send me all of the realm's production values, so I can put them in my realm-level model and crunch a few more numbers.
A very rough estimation of the amount needed to import to make it to summer is 5k bushels but that is, as i said, a very rough estimate. I would send you the production values, or just give you the estimate of what is needed for winter and spring but I don't have access to the numbers atm the moment because of command disappearing to sea travel and unfortunately I have to sail to Iashalur without landing elsewhere.
-
A very rough estimation of the amount needed to import to make it to summer is 5k bushels but that is, as i said, a very rough estimate. I would send you the production values, or just give you the estimate of what is needed for winter and spring but I don't have access to the numbers atm the moment because of command disappearing to sea travel and unfortunately I have to sail to Iashalur without landing elsewhere.
No rush. When you get on dry land, send me the numbers and I'll see what I can produce with them. A print-screen would likely be ideal.