There are wars going on in the North-East. Morek won't be coming to bash down on Asylon. I doubt they would have anyways, too. Nor are the other north-eastern realms in war. I really doubt that *anything* could bring more than Astrum to Kabrinskia's aid. This isn't a war against infidels, after all, and a good chunk of SA would really love to see Allison fail.
Never underestimate the power of boredom. It is a great tool for having people join wars on your side.
But on the whole you're correct.