I actually doubt that a great splintering is what is in store for SA; rather I see it becoming even more of a silent flavour religion. Recent events such as the defeat of Astrum, Jonsu's rise to power, and the loss of many of our most active players, seems to me to indicate that the days of a strong and assertive Elders Council are long gone, at least until the memories of the recent disasters have passed. No one I think wants another disastrous war, or another maniacal Regent. Indeed, if the recent weeks of having no Elders have proven anything its that an active Elders Council is by no means required for the vast majority of SA in the North-east to continue as normal.
I agree that we're likely to see (or indeed already have seen) splits from the peripheries of SA, as ambitious nobles realise that with the threat of any retribution gone its far better to be a prophet of a small local faith than a lowly follower of a large one based half a continent away. But the heartland of SA, the theocracies, will likely remain as they are considering that at least nominal adherence to SA is a large part of the political system.
Call me a pessimist but I think the days of a religion of Dwilight commanding multiple realms to act according to its will are a thing of the past. SA will likely just become the bland and inactive flavour religion of the North-east (and possibly D'Hara).
