Should be 23, not 22, due to troops. I think the problem is that the days till starvation is being calculated based on the daily harvests that the system *technically* works by, but in reality works on a weekly basis.
I think there should be a daily report on the duchy level and to the banker for any region of the duchy that will run out of food before the next harvest, just a simple:
IF stored_food < (daily_consumption * days_till_harvest), THEN issue alert.
