[Forum Game] Werewolf XIV: The Vengeance Factor

[Dishman]

I wouldn't discount the possibility that all assassins are avoiding the spotlight. There are plenty of people avoiding interaction. I do, however, think the ThomasGriff jump was a bit quick. Especially given...

Oh. My. I don't believe it. But I think it's my fellow ambassador, D'espana. Assume he is the assassin and read through his messages again. I know him well. I believe I can read him well too. Take this into account for the next voting. *There is always a chance I am dead wrong. For now, I am inclined to agree:

VOTE Thomasgriff

Fury jumped on a likely lynch rather than his gut. It seems like he was setting up his next vote rather than looking for culprits when he did voice suspicion. As for 'would mafia vote an innocent', this turns into a conundrum. The level of deceit can be an endless pit and obvious moves are sometimes less obvious.

As for my distrust of you, it is only partly linked to Fury. You have taken a lead role, a lead that killed an innocent. You have been very confident in your abilities, perhaps too confident to be so in the dark as a humble diplomat.

[Norrel]

I wouldn't discount the possibility that all assassins are avoiding the spotlight. There are plenty of people avoiding interaction. I do, however, think the ThomasGriff jump was a bit quick. Especially given...
Fury jumped on a likely lynch rather than his gut. It seems like he was setting up his next vote rather than looking for culprits when he did voice suspicion. As for 'would mafia vote an innocent', this turns into a conundrum. The level of deceit can be an endless pit and obvious moves are sometimes less obvious.

As for my distrust of you, it is only partly linked to Fury. You have taken a lead role, a lead that killed an innocent. You have been very confident in your abilities, perhaps too confident to be so in the dark as a humble diplomat.

This is actually good analysis, I may have been to focused on other parts of the game than the reasons for lynching and didn't look at that specific post with a critical eye. It seems a bit odd to shove suspicion on one person and then vote for another in the same breath, with no reason - it seems like insurance and focus-shifting tactics. I would still prefer a null lynch but this is a solid read as well.

UNVOTE PENCHANT
VOTE FURY

[Norrel]

'would mafia vote an innocent', this turns into a conundrum. The level of deceit can be an endless pit and obvious moves are sometimes less obvious.

You misunderstood what I meant. I'm not saying that mafia wouldn't vote for an innocent, they obviously would. What they would attempt to do is either a) bandwagon with an assured lynch or b) throw their votes against people who have no chance of being lynched.

[Ketchum]

Ambassador Norrel, I am no scum, you can put up in 70-80% range scum. If I die, feel free to find the culprit on your own.
I tend to play badly as Townie, dont know why :P
I am helping you now.


I guess weekend has lot of inactivity. Not that this slowdown Battlemaster wars at all.

[Stabbity]

UNvOTE Penchant
VOTE Fury

[Norrel]

UNvOTE Penchant
VOTE Fury

Bandwagoning without explanation. Didn't I just explain how awful this is?

[Sonya]

Nonsense. I want Ohnar to recieve the proper spoils if war as victors and victims of aggression.

And what that would be?
The Blood of innocent people?
Will you murder to get what you want?
Will you accuse and vote some one to get what you want?

[Stabbity]

And what that would be?
The Blood of innocent people?
Will you murder to get what you want?
Will you accuse and vote some one to get what you want?

I'm sorry but who let the Aenillian in? Greater Aenillia is not apart of these discussions. In fact I don't know why I'm dignifying them with a response because its clear the only reason an Aenillian would be here is because they're a Sartanist assassin. Pretty quick to throw out an accusation after all of this silence.

Still not as bad as Norrel and his constant ranting. I'd say its an attempt at being so overt that he's covert. Blindly following a man hurling wild accusations is clearly pro-town. Good job Norrel, your tell lynched an innocent. Lynching townies is anti-town.

[Norrel]

Lynching townies is anti-town.

... No, it isn't? Try to get past your preconceived notions about this game and think for a second. I've already explained every move I've made in detail and I'm getting tired of explaining myself.

[Stabbity]

... No, it isn't? Try to get past your preconceived notions about this game and think for a second. I've already explained every move I've made in detail and I'm getting tired of explaining myself.

I wish you would.

Simply put, you're acting extremely defensive. A bajillion posts defending your reasoning does not match with the behaivor of an innocent person. In fact in the multiple courses on interrogation I've taken they would classify this as defensive behaivor, and my half a decade of experience would agree. What are hiding? And your elitist attitude about this game doesn't help you any.

[Norrel]

Simply put, you're acting extremely defensive. A bajillion posts defending your reasoning does not match with the behaivor of an innocent person. In fact in the multiple courses on interrogation I've taken they would classify this as defensive behaivor, and my half a decade of experience would agree. What are hiding? And your elitist attitude about this game doesn't help you any.

I'm not being elitist, I'm trying to teach people. My entire agenda has been to engender discussion and debate, and yours has been to squash it. Encouraging discussion can hardly be called elitist.

The thing about this game is that there is no such thing as a presumption of innocence. Every move should be analyzed, every motive discussed and every action explained. Doing things for unexplained reasons leaves things under the table. If things stay under the table, mafia wins. If you'd prefer, though, we can just toss out votes for random "roleplay" reasons and let the mafia coordinate while we piss our votes away into space.

[Fury]

Norrel (good?)
Dishman (good?)
Penchant
D'espana (bad?)
Ketchum
Stabbity (bad?)
Thomasgriff- Diplomat/hunter, hung to death on Day 1
Arrandal- Ambassador, murdered on day 1
Fury (good)
Sonya (good?)

No matter how much analysis with reasoning is made, there are always alternative reasoning. For instance, killing of Arrandal seems like the work of an amateur newcomer but I personally know all our remaining diplomats whom I've met in the past before in various functions - with the exception of Dishman whom I do not think is our assassin. This would mean our killer could only be pretending to be new and inexperienced. Unless it's... Sonya? She's not new but has a 'different' aura than the regular diplomats.

I do, however, think the ThomasGriff jump was a bit quick.

Yes, I did not have time to stay around for a longer chat. I'm also a bit of a gambler, philosophically. While Norrel seems to want to win and survive by showing his reasoning skills, I try to do the same with a quick intuitive shot right from the beginning. Well, I still have D'espana but voting D'espana alone accomplishes nothing whatever my suspicions if no one else shares them. As I also shared the same suspicions about ThomasGriff with others, it was only logical to join in.

Right now Stabbitty just come on the radar with pinpoint voting targetting so:

UNVOTE D'espana
VOTE Stabbitty

[Norrel]

UNVOTE D'espana
VOTE Stabbitty

I seriously doubt that Stabbity is scum at this point. That latest exchange was a solid town read.

[Fury]

I seriously doubt that Stabbity is scum at this point. That latest exchange was a solid town read.

A single "convincing" post doesn't count. Should I follow the lead and vote for myself then? It's already three. I shall be monitoring till sunset.

[Norrel]

A single "convincing" post doesn't count. Should I follow the lead and vote for myself then? It's already three. I shall be monitoring till sunset.

... Yeah, it does.

He's putting himself on the frontline when he's both not the target of the present bandwagon and there are tons of non-contributing players he could hide with. He's not scum.

And yeah I know about the whole "oh well he could be faking it" but given the statistical likelihood of town losing this game with three or four non-playing entities and the fact that he's smart means that he's not going to pull such a dumb ploy. Is there a chance he's scum? Yeah, duh. Is he by far one of the least likely suspects? Yes.

This group has already shown that it wants to lynch active, loud players against its own interest. For him to suddenly jump out like this, already knowing this fact would be absurdly stupid. Even despite my protests I would not be surprised in the least if people decided to lynch him even though he's the second most townie player in the game, aside from Dishman.

Given your propensity to use "intuition" instead of reasoning skills, I'm kind of surprised that you want to offhandedly reject an argument because it's supposedly based on a small sample space.