Impossible at the current rate, yes. However, I do believe you have forgotten that you had the food production lowered... which means that most of that storage was from before you lowered production.
This.
Also, we aren't at day 1 of summer, we are at day 9 of Fall. Which, by my calculations, would mean 67,769 more bushels at at day 1 of summer. 32,231 additional bushels of food would be reached within 7 days.
So really, you have 7 days of Fall production in surplus of what you'd have if Dwilight had had all food removed from it on the first day of summer. Which was inherited by the previous systems, and by the fact that consumption probably rose significantly faster than production (it would take 14 days of summer harvest to accumulate a surplus of 32,000 with the current population, but after the long winter, it would have probably taken a lot less time to produce such a surplus).
My calculations really aren't anything fancy or complicated. I just made an excel spreadsheet, with days 1 to 84, took the values you gave me, punched them in, added the seasonal modifiers (1 for summer, 2 for fall, .25 for winter, .75 for spring) in 1% rot per day. No magical numbers, just deductions based off the consumption of 1 bushel per 500 peasants per day, 113% average surplus before rot, and 220,000 population as according to the stats page for a week or two ago.
This isn't accurate. Dwilight, in autumn right now, produces roughly 150% of demand. Based on seasonal modifiers, this amount changes to:
- Summer: 125%
- Spring: 93%
- Winter: 63%
This comes out to a yearly production of about 108% of demand.
This is much, much worse than the 13% figure being quoted in this thread and is the real reason droughts and winter are so serious.
Seasons are the confounding factor here. As described above, these stocks come from the recent summer and now autumn. The island, as a whole, produces extremely large surpluses in these two seasons, but is at a deficit in the other two. It is through the two seasons of deficit that the summer/autumn stocks are consumed, and at the end of the seasonal year we can expect a surplus of about 5000 bushels per year. 5000 bushels, in the face of drought, is not much.
If I take a 108% scenario, pre-rot, that gives me a yearly surplus of only 1,836 bushels per year, instead of 13,535.
Yearly food production: 399,168 bushels
Yearly food consumption: 369,600 bushels
Yearly food rot: 27,732 bushels
Yearly food surplus: 1,836 bushels
Poll