Your Opinion on Food and the Markets in Dwilight

[Chenier]

Oh, and I toyed with some numbers... If pre-rot, Dwilight produces 107,2% of what it consumes, that means a continental deficit of 35 bushels by the end of the year once rot is factored in.

And that, again, is assuming 100% production, no population increases, no looting, no troops, no Zuma, no monsters, no droughts, and all food being stored in granaries.

[^ban^]

There was an error in my maths: It's 250% of demand, 125% of demand, 93% of demand, 62% of demand, or 177% of demand over the course of a year.

(The error was I used net production when I shouldn't have)

Sorry, Tom.

[Chenier]

There was an error in my maths: It's 250% of demand, 125% of demand, 93% of demand, 62% of demand, or 177% of demand over the course of a year.

(The error was I used net production when I shouldn't have)

Sorry, Tom.

Gah, where are all the numbers coming from? 113%? 108%? And how does 177% come from the rest of these numbers?

125% summer production of demand gives me:
Food production: 462,000 bushels
Food consumption: 369,600 bushels
Rot: 50,789 bushels
Yearly surplus: 41,611

But I must, again, insist that this is under the perfect conditions that we absolutely do not have, and zero population growth (which is also absolutely not to the case). Also note that the yearly surplus value is for a first given year with 0 bushels stored to begin with, and that since the starting warehouse value was greater than zero, the surplus production is lower than given in this model, for even under perfect conditions, there is a theoretical cap to how much food can be maintained on Dwilight, because eventually rot value will be greater than the surplus production value. For example, if Dwilight starts with 75,000 bushels on the first day of summer, instead of 0, it should end the year with 821 bushels LESS than it started with, as per ban's numbers of 125% of demand on summer production. Because with 75,000 bushels in the warehouses to begin with, rot (under, again, optimal conditions) reaches 20% of the yearly production.

Ignoring rot when making predictions and adjusting food production values on Dwilight is really a big mistake, imo. 1%, daily, is HUGE. With 75,000 bushels to start the year off, Dwilight would lose an average of 1,109 bushels of food to rot per day.

Last Winter was harsh... I'll be damned if this winter doesn't have a great number of harsh surprises for us as well.

'cause if I assume your new production values, and Tom's 100,000 bushels on hand on the 8th day of Fall, by the end of Spring, the average warehouse value per region would be of, at most, 248 bushels. Under perfect conditions and perfect distribution.

[Chenier]

If food production doesn't rise, it'd take 200 days for Dwilight to completely run out of food, under perfect conditions.

Google Drive Share Link for Dwilight Food Predictions

If you see any errors, or have questions about any of the equations or numbers, feel free to speak up.

My goal, by doing this, was not to manipulate. It was to provide the best tool I could possibly build to help get a better estimate of Dwilight's food situation, as the numbers that are always given always seem exaggerated and do not consider fundamentally significant data like rot.

Nobody commented on my spreadsheet. Do you spot any mistakes in it?

Because even if I consider a 5,95 bushels per day increase in food production, the model is still unsustainable on the long-term, and only leaves Dwilight with an average of 200 bushels per region at the end of spring.

Assuming perfect weather
Assuming no decreases in production
Assuming no troops
Assuming no Zuma
Assuming no monsters
Assuming all food is stored in granaries
Assuming no looting

I'm totally fine with the idea of some regions or realms starving as the result of improper management, or even as the result of extremely unlikely conjunctures (continent-wide drought). However, I find extremely frustration the massive starvation of a realm as a result of food being arbitrarily made scarcer without even the least concern for such elemental variables as rot and growth. I know that my realm will implode, and there's nothing we can do other than choosing to starve our own cities to spare other cities, which is utterly ridiculous, because the food just doesn't exist on the continent to feed everyone.

[vonGenf]

I know that my realm will implode, and there's nothing we can do

We are taking over rurals. And, you know, we could still convince other realms to feed us.

[Solari]

I think Chénier's point was that it's not a problem specific to D'Hara. There's no way out of it for almost every realm.

[Chenier]

We are taking over rurals. And, you know, we could still convince other realms to feed us.

Doesn't matter, those rurals don't pop out of thin air, they are included in the continental-wide food production stats. They also come late, with atrocious production levels. And even rurals, in winter, produce a shortage of food, if Maeotis is of any guidance.

And we can't convince others to feed us, if no one has enough food to do so. How many bushels do people like having per region as a safety buffer? If it's anywhere over 200, we are screwed.

I think Chénier's point was that it's not a problem specific to D'Hara. There's no way out of it for almost every realm.

Under perfect distribution, it would end up affecting everyone, and Dwilight would implode. However, as we don't have that, there is no way D'Hara can stave off continuous repeats of the Long Winter, because we are the first ones affected by any rarity of food.

[vonGenf]

those rurals don't pop out of thin air, they are included in the continental-wide food production stats.

If I understand correctly, your stats show that not all cities can be at full pop at the same time. If they are, even with perfect production and distribution there is going to be starvation. The strongest will hold the food for themselves, and the weakest will see their city starve.

That doesn't mean there is going to be a spiral to complete starvation. Once enough commoners die, we should be fine. Well, at least as long as it's not your commoners that died.

[Anaris]

Well, at least as long as it's not your commoners that died.

Except that, as he points out, it will almost always be his commoners who died, given D'Hara's structural food situation. So while you may be right that Dwilight won't implode due to this, from his perspective, it may not matter much.

[vonGenf]

Except that, as he points out, it will almost always be his commoners who died, given D'Hara's structural food situation. So while you may be right that Dwilight won't implode due to this, from his perspective, it may not matter much.

Well, yes, see previous comment.

[Chenier]

If I understand correctly, your stats show that not all cities can be at full pop at the same time. If they are, even with perfect production and distribution there is going to be starvation. The strongest will hold the food for themselves, and the weakest will see their city starve.

That doesn't mean there is going to be a spiral to complete starvation. Once enough commoners die, we should be fine. Well, at least as long as it's not your commoners that died.

I do not have the data to determine how many cities would need to be left rogue for Dwilight to become self-sustaining.

I played years trying to build up a realm that was difficult to feed, and now, for no reason other than simply not caring to consider fundamental variables in the equation, the continent was manually altered so that it is no longer difficult, but instead impossible. And I find this very frustrating. Because no one on the dev team will point out any errors in my calculations, nor provide food estimates that consider, at the very least, food rot.

[Solari]

I'm just eyeballing the work that Chénier's done, and I don't know what qualifies as an "implosion", but it's definitely more than three realms by my estimation.

[Penchant]

Just saying, I see D'hara getting out of this Winter just fine. Some bankers actually do their job so thanks for all the confidence Chenier.

[^ban^]

Just saying, I see D'hara getting out of this Winter just fine. Some bankers actually do their job so thanks for all the confidence Chenier.

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[Vellos]

Chenier,

I will look at your spreadhsheet sometime next week. Mostly because I like spredsheets.

No time for it right now.