Your Opinion on Food and the Markets in Dwilight

[Penchant]

the point
---------
   you

Umm, what is that supposed to mean?

[Vellos]

He's saying you missed the point.

[Penchant]

He's saying you missed the point.

O, I know that. That was the just saying part, as in it didn't really matter to this but i was just saying it. Thanks btw.

[Chenier]

Just saying, I see D'hara getting out of this Winter just fine. Some bankers actually do their job so thanks for all the confidence Chenier.

D'Hara will survive winter if:

1) We have successfully bought an incredible amount of food somehow (which likely would result in another realm starving instead of us)
or
2) You are somehow able to create food out of thin air.

Maybe if I think a little harder, I can make a few deductions off the statistics page to try figure out what our food production is and will be. But I can tell you that D'Hara, between now and summer, should consume about 13,250 bushels. I don't know how things are outside of the duchy of Paisly, but if they have that food, they'll have to be sharing with us.

[egamma]

Does the 108% surplus take into account the rogue regions in the northwest, and all the rogue regions for that matter? Sure, "it's the players fault for not conquering those food-producing regions", but some allowance should be made, just the same.

[dustole]

I know the food situation in Golden Farrow was a pain in the butt.  I can only imagine what it is like in D'hara.  Perhaps we just need to find a way to work within the system we have.  The D'haran cities including Paisly should just be abandoned.  I know this isn't really fair or even realistic.  But if not them, then 3 other cities being abandoned would solve the problems. 

Morek was a good food producer but then they took Nifelheim but Astrum got some of the rurals.  Then they colonized Flowrestown so their food surplus will eventually supply them.   If we are having such huge food problems now, its only going to get worse.  There are several cities who aren't at their max population just yet.  Golden Farrow, Eichur, Flowrestown, Darfix, Port Raviel, Port Nebel, Paisly, Mimer and Unterstrom are all underpopulated.  Plus a few more that I didn't list. 


If production is 108%-113% of max Dwilight population then things might be salvageable.  If however those production figures are based on current populations then we are in for some real pain. 

You might just be better off abandoning the cities for now and stockpile food in your townslands.  Above all else, don't invest too much gold into the infrastructure of the cities on D'hara.  They are going to be the first cities to go rogue from starvation if things get worse on the island.


A 5% increase in food production across the island might be nice.  If only to see what changes in the trading stats occur.  The stats from the tracker should be able to show us what kind of difference that extra 5% makes.

[Chenier]

Just let your realm die.

Thank you for this insightful solution. We'll be sure to consider it.

A 5% increase in food production across the island might be nice.  If only to see what changes in the trading stats occur.  The stats from the tracker should be able to show us what kind of difference that extra 5% makes.

If I knew what the continent's max population was, and what Tom considers an adequate surplus value at the beginning of summer, I could propose a maximum total food output that would, with rot considered, tend to fluctuate around the desired value after a few years, so that realms could intentionally make others starve by actively going out to buy food from other realms that they don't need themselves, but that they can't cause others to starve just by not bothering themselves with trade (unless an incredibly large number of lords also don't).

[Vellos]

Looked over your spreadsheets.

Not sure what to make of'em.

What value are you using to get total food production and population, if I may ask?

[Penchant]

D'Hara will survive winter if:

1) We have successfully bought an incredible amount of food somehow (which likely would result in another realm starving instead of us)
or
2) You are somehow able to create food out of thin air.

Maybe if I think a little harder, I can make a few deductions off the statistics page to try figure out what our food production is and will be. But I can tell you that D'Hara, between now and summer, should consume about 13,250 bushels. I don't know how things are outside of the duchy of Paisly, but if they have that food, they'll have to be sharing with us.

Obviously not two, so its one. Also, pretty sure you have a massive overestimate on the amount of food needed, but I will check later to be sure.

[Chenier]

Looked over your spreadsheets.

Not sure what to make of'em.

What value are you using to get total food production and population, if I may ask?

Statistics page. As for base food production, I used the fact that I was told by devs that Dwilight has a 125% supply ratio, so I considered how much the total population of the continent consumes (total pop / 500), and multipled by 1,25 to know how much food they produced daily. Population growth was also based off the statistics, by subtracting the oldest value to the newest value and dividing by the number of days elapsed (82 by my count). By calculating a growth in peaks that seemed normal (i.e. not the lowest value to highest value), I looked at the food production stats and estimated a 5,95 bushel per day growth to food production.

I used stacked histograms all the time when using the stats page, to work with total values.

Obviously not two, so its one. Also, pretty sure you have a massive overestimate on the amount of food needed, but I will check later to be sure.

Just off the top of my head, I think we have about 52 days left to summer? 107866 population. So, if we ignore population growth (which I had factored in) and rot (which I had not), we get a formula of (107,866 / 500) * 52 = food required = 11,218.

I think it was you that massively underestimated the amount of food needed. I'm sure you bought a tonload of food, but I'm just skeptical that you could get your hands on this much.

[Solari]

If I knew what the continent's max population was

2,911,100. Current population is 2,280,764.

[Vellos]

Statistics page. As for base food production, I used the fact that I was told by devs that Dwilight has a 125% supply ratio, so I considered how much the total population of the continent consumes (total pop / 500), and multipled by 1,25 to know how much food they produced daily. Population growth was also based off the statistics, by subtracting the oldest value to the newest value and dividing by the number of days elapsed (82 by my count). By calculating a growth in peaks that seemed normal (i.e. not the lowest value to highest value), I looked at the food production stats and estimated a 5,95 bushel per day growth to food production.

I used stacked histograms all the time when using the stats page, to work with total values.

Just off the top of my head, I think we have about 52 days left to summer? 107866 population. So, if we ignore population growth (which I had factored in) and rot (which I had not), we get a formula of (107,866 / 500) * 52 = food required = 11,218.

I think it was you that massively underestimated the amount of food needed. I'm sure you bought a tonload of food, but I'm just skeptical that you could get your hands on this much.

So you didn't use total Dwilight production, you used total CURRENT production? Stats page doesn't give you 100% production values?

[Penchant]

Just off the top of my head, I think we have about 52 days left to summer? 107866 population. So, if we ignore population growth (which I had factored in) and rot (which I had not), we get a formula of (107,866 / 500) * 52 = food required = 11,218.

I think it was you that massively underestimated the amount of food needed. I'm sure you bought a tonload of food, but I'm just skeptical that you could get your hands on this much.

Well thats a very misleading number. I believe that we need that much, but you make it sound like we need to buy that much. Unfortunately, I can't use the food report to check the numbers for awhile, as far as checking total production values with the seasonal changes to check how much of a deficit we will have, as I am sailing up to Iashalur. 

[Chenier]

So you didn't use total Dwilight production, you used total CURRENT production? Stats page doesn't give you 100% production values?

I used current production only to determine food production growth, for I have no idea what the food production graph actually means. I did assume, however, that the 125% production ratio was meant on current production, and not maximum production/maximum consumption, which may have been a mistake. My production values are taken from the 125%, from Ban, and from the (population's) consumption value, which is easy to determine.

Well thats a very misleading number. I believe that we need that much, but you make it sound like we need to buy that much. Unfortunately, I can't use the food report to check the numbers for awhile, as far as checking total production values with the seasonal changes to check how much of a deficit we will have, as I am sailing up to Iashalur. 

I'm not convinced it's so misleading. Not much longer left to Fall, then we drop to 25% before going up to 75% production. About 80% of the days left before summer have a production modifier below 100%, which in itself is also insufficient. Because at 25%, even rural regions like Maeotis will consume more than they produce. And then there's rot, especially since many of our regions lack granaries since the Long Winter broke them all apart.

What I gave you was pure consumption, without the production. I don't have access to the production values, you do. Maybe you can estimate how much food the realm will produce in the next 52 days or so?

Typically, ignoring rurals would seriously be misleading. But in D'Hara, with our granary problems, rarity of rurals, and poor condition of most of them, it's not as bad. But yea, as I said, please send me all of the realm's production values, so I can put them in my realm-level model and crunch a few more numbers.

[Penchant]

I'm not convinced it's so misleading. Not much longer left to Fall, then we drop to 25% before going up to 75% production. About 80% of the days left before summer have a production modifier below 100%, which in itself is also insufficient. Because at 25%, even rural regions like Maeotis will consume more than they produce. And then there's rot, especially since many of our regions lack granaries since the Long Winter broke them all apart.

What I gave you was pure consumption, without the production. I don't have access to the production values, you do. Maybe you can estimate how much food the realm will produce in the next 52 days or so?

Typically, ignoring rurals would seriously be misleading. But in D'Hara, with our granary problems, rarity of rurals, and poor condition of most of them, it's not as bad. But yea, as I said, please send me all of the realm's production values, so I can put them in my realm-level model and crunch a few more numbers.

A very rough estimation of the amount needed to import to make it to summer is 5k bushels but that is, as i said, a very rough estimate. I would send you the production values, or just give you the estimate of what is needed for winter and spring but I don't have access to the numbers atm the moment because of command disappearing to sea travel and unfortunately I have to sail to Iashalur without landing elsewhere.