It could? It's had three regions go rogue in the last week or so - making four total - isolating one of its cities from the rest of the realm. It has an on-paper military the second-largest (at times) on the island yet can't hold off one of the weakest realms thanks to a group of nobles who sympathise with the enemy while that enemy burns their realm to the ground around their ears. At the same time, the realm refuses to accept a peace treaty with that enemy realm while also refusing to put together a force large enough to defeat it, despite being easily capable of doing so. That seems a pretty bad situation to me.
