Step #3 doesn't explain two battles in Nascot where in one, Perdan and Perleone (allies) fought alongside monsters against Highmarch, and another where Perdan just watched as monsters fought against Highmarch.
Highmarch was peasants. Perdan and Perleone are allies, Perleone is at Neutral with Highmarch, and I think Perdan is at Neutral too. Perleone was looting the region and probably had attack orders.