Same. That is quite odd. Was there a large trade on that planet that turn? That's the only thing that messes me up now.
I think the chance is supposed to increase quite a bit over time as you kill people with your orbital bombardments, sway them with your big pointy sticks and generally make them give up on life under their former rulers. How much it increases and if it makes a difference is as yet unknown, but I think Dave said he might tweak it once people have had a play.
So far as I can tell the capitulation chance is based on Society Level, a big enough fleet will lower society levels when it bombards, so eventually you will improve the chance, just the planet will be probably much lower then you wanted. I'm having some success still with taking planets, and non of my fleets are that huge, but yeah its much slower then it used to be, and I've started making much bigger fleets.
