Cathay is joining for sure on Arcaea's side?
Didn't know that bit. Interesting. Then I'd say the war will turn decidedly in Arcaea's favor. GA won't be able to hold on under that sort of pressure, and, once they capitulate, Arcachon can't fight the combined military power of Arcaea and Ohnar West.
Technically, they're joining on Ohnar West's side against Arcachon. Amounts to the same thing, though.