What happened, to be honest, is that the players/characters who built SA left. Not all of them, but most of them. There was a time when it would have been inconceivable for Niselur to defy the Church this way, or for Astrum to find itself in this position of weakness. It wasn't all that long ago that both Kabrinskia (as it was then) and Niselur were client states of Astrum. It is sheer passivity that has allowed the present state of affairs to come to pass. Leopold's rebellion should have been crushed without mercy, and FR should have been brought into line more carefully. Unfortunately, the personal relationships that once bound SA together (for example the Brance-Rowan-Bustoarsenzio relationship) have ceased to exist, and without them the fabric that bound the Church together is slowly eroding.
I agree with this observation. When the pillars that built SA departed the foundation of characters on which SA was built was gone, and some new people, perhaps unproven in the eyes of the Church, have taken the leadership. But it is worthy to note that these characters have left for a reason. SA has reached its height and there was nothing left to do. Dwilight was conquered and trying to control such a massive core of nobles that SA became was exhausting and unrewarding task. The blob was just getting bigger and bigger and regular players simply don't have enough time to devote to control this mass of commotion and regular unrest on daily basis. If they tried, they burned out, which is what I believe happened to Brance when he was the Regent. If Brance couldn't do it, who is probably the most respected individual in the history of SA, I don't think anyone ever will. Without firm leadership that everyone looks up to this mass of nobles become dissatisfied when they're ordered around. It is simply how nature of players and characters works. Mordaunt failed to provide this leadership to the Church and other candidates for the Regent were even worse. Now, when someone like Hireshmont - whose reputation is stained and dubious - becomes the most vocal proponent of the Church, which makes him de facto a leader-in-command, it is only natural that the foundations of the Church start falling apart. Every Empire reaches its zenith and so does SA. But after you surpass that point, there is only a long way down to go. I don't think SA will die out, that would be a great shame. But I think things will change if this war makes the effect I am hoping it will. For better or for worse, it is hard to say. I don't think anyone knows for sure what will be the result in the end. But I believe that as long as we're having fun traveling - the destination is less important.
