It would probably be Libero, Niselur, Asylon vs SA. Probably Asylon because that darned SA-alliance keeps getting in the way, and this would be the only chance to break it. Maybe other realms will join in if some sort of weakness is perceived.
Morek wouldn't be possible-the Libero vassalage agreement probably irritated Morek and I think I read somewhere that Astrum and Morek are very close friends.