New Stats Region/Realm Efficiency

[Vellos]

So I was bored for a bit.

Turns out that there is significant disparity among realms right now in terms of either gold or food output per square mile. This is in terms of the stats provided in the region list; so naturally this is a question of purely theoretical concern. What is odd is that realms that have very inefficient scores on, say, gold output per square mile, they are not compensated with great food output per square mile. So, for example, of the 6 realms with the highest gold output per square mile (Astrum, Aurvandil, Corsanctum, D'Hara, Luria Nova, Solaria; 0.3582 gold/sq.mi), the food output/mile is 0.151... the average of the 6 most efficient realms on the food stat is 0.1675. The lowest six are 0.0936.

Similar results exist for the lower end of the spectrum.

It looks like "efficiency of gold production" is a not-too-shabby predictor of "efficiency of food production."

Making it a two-way test, "efficiency of food production" was not quite as strong a predictor of "efficiency of gold production."

In sum, being an efficient gold producer means you're probably a food producer; but being an efficient food producer is not as strong an indicator of being an efficient gold producer.

While these conclusions might seem very abstract and theoretical, I think they're actually worthy of note. It is genuinely strange that realms which are highly efficient at producing gold (my gut instinct is to think "Urban-centric realms") should also be highly efficient at producing food, and that realms which are inefficient at producing gold (again, gut instinct is to say "More rural realms") should also be inefficient at producing food.

I did not discuss a measure of population, because I wanted to get at fundamental, underlying factors. Land area is fixed. I could limit the findings to realms which seem to have populations near maximums to try and make the data more concrete.

But there is another curious finding. I also looked at population density. To get any significant findings on gold/food/land relations, I had to use means-testing for groups, which is not exactly the most robust standard out there. But for the relationship between population density and gold production, there was a simple linear correlation. This is, at first, not surprising: more population density, more cities, more efficient gold production. Makes sense, right?

What is strange is when you look at food. When significant outliers are removed, the correlation between population density and the efficiency of food production is stronger than the correlation between pop. density and the efficiency of gold production. With outliers included (Luria Nova and D'Hara, for the curious), gold is a stronger correlation. But without outliers, food is.

Even if it's not a stronger correlation, it is odd to me that population density (which, in my mind, is a proxy for urbanization) would have a positive, linear relationship with efficiency of food production. This relationship is especially odd given that the efficiency of food production is a fixed, given value from the region list, while population density will vary every day, across seasons, and across years of political changes. That the correlation should exist despite that is peculiar.

My concluding thoughts were that this could be, rather like the "small city effect" in my previous venture into Dwilight data-mining, a sort of "wood/town/bad-land effect," wherein realms with low population densities are simply reflecting the presence of woodlands and badlands, while the higher density realms may be reflecting townslands. I haven't checked through all the data for the frequency of such atypical regions.

[Tom]

You think too much in balance and gamey terms.

That is not how the worlds of BM were built.

The original numbers (which have since been changed many times, though) were created in a painstaken process of dedicated research into medieval history, economics and details of farming and trade, which culminated in an hour or two during which I sat down with the database in one window and the map in another and looked at the regions and simply made up numbers for them that kind of felt right.

No, seriously. There was no research or any balancing or calculations of bla, whatever. I looked at the regions and said "hm, ok this looks like fertile farmland, let's give it a good food score".


Because, let's face it, that is largely how the real world works. There are so many factors determining fertility of an area that from a higher level, it looks pretty much like someone pulled it out of a hat.

[Chenier]

I actually consider it quite logical. Those that are wealthy have easier access to better technology and agricultural tools. Just like in the real-world: food production per surface is much higher in the industrialized countries than in the agriculture-based economies.

Yea, the high-tech didn't exist back then, but even the most primitive of tools or methods of culture made all the difference.

[Dante Silverfire]

So I was bored for a bit.

Why does this not surprise me?

No, seriously. There was no research or any balancing or calculations of bla, whatever. I looked at the regions and said "hm, ok this looks like fertile farmland, let's give it a good food score".

Because, let's face it, that is largely how the real world works. There are so many factors determining fertility of an area that from a higher level, it looks pretty much like someone pulled it out of a hat.

This is so funny to me its hard to describe. Although I agree completely.

As to the research done, it does sound interesting. I'd love to see how such analysis would work on Atamara, as I'd place Coria towards the top of both lists just by thinking about it in terms of efficiency.

[Vellos]

You think too much in balance and gamey terms.

That is not how the worlds of BM were built.

The original numbers (which have since been changed many times, though) were created in a painstaken process of dedicated research into medieval history, economics and details of farming and trade, which culminated in an hour or two during which I sat down with the database in one window and the map in another and looked at the regions and simply made up numbers for them that kind of felt right.

No, seriously. There was no research or any balancing or calculations of bla, whatever. I looked at the regions and said "hm, ok this looks like fertile farmland, let's give it a good food score".


Because, let's face it, that is largely how the real world works. There are so many factors determining fertility of an area that from a higher level, it looks pretty much like someone pulled it out of a hat.

I wasn't criticizing or saying it should be otherwise.

You made a system. You added certain inputs. I don't presume you intended for it to be precisely balanced or ordered. I believe that it will find a way to equilibriate and self-order anyways. I like to see what fundamentals there may be, and what effect they might have. This particular case seemed interesting because it actually yielded significant correlations, and also seemed like it could add some RP depth. Again, players can have a measure from the game mechanics letting them know how fertile/prosperous their lands (though, in this case, not necessarily their people) actually are/could be.

I actually consider it quite logical. Those that are wealthy have easier access to better technology and agricultural tools. Just like in the real-world: food production per surface is much higher in the industrialized countries than in the agriculture-based economies.

Yea, the high-tech didn't exist back then, but even the most primitive of tools or methods of culture made all the difference.

Could be. I wonder if data on agricultural productivity per acre and capital intensity for the Middle Ages is available, or any kind of proxy variable? I'd wager it is, but not all in one place, and I don't really feel like looking for it all right now.

[Tom]

I don't presume you intended for it to be precisely balanced or ordered.

Oh dear, no! I absolutely WANT some regions to be especially interesting and others to suck. Where's the incentive to grab X if the Y you already own is the same?

[songqu88@gmail.com]

You know what this might actually do?

Shut up those people complaining about how boring Dwilight will be once every region is taken.

Cause I reckon it'll make some regions very nice so people will want to stick their realm there instead of their !@#$ty rathole. Because let's face it, no matter how much you want to RP about your great-granddaddy whatever being some king thing a couple centuries ago that no one cares about, if your kingdom sucks then you'll be the little weakling who probably can't even get strong friends cause the strong friends already have more than whatever you can give them.

And then that means we can in fact have localized civilization where people fight for the best regions and leave out the !@#$ty ones unless they absolutely must take them. In which case more frontier (Well, kinda...I guess...for the LOSERS!)

It's lols, but cool beans for the PVP attitude that should happen in this game.

[De-Legro]

You know what this might actually do?

Shut up those people complaining about how boring Dwilight will be once every region is taken.

Cause I reckon it'll make some regions very nice so people will want to stick their realm there instead of their !@#$ty rathole. Because let's face it, no matter how much you want to RP about your great-granddaddy whatever being some king thing a couple centuries ago that no one cares about, if your kingdom sucks then you'll be the little weakling who probably can't even get strong friends cause the strong friends already have more than whatever you can give them.

And then that means we can in fact have localized civilization where people fight for the best regions and leave out the !@#$ty ones unless they absolutely must take them. In which case more frontier (Well, kinda...I guess...for the LOSERS!)

It's lols, but cool beans for the PVP attitude that should happen in this game.

You mean how like everyone has craved Darfix, for you know years already. While no one in their right mind dreams of a realm based in Balances Retreat.

[Indirik]

While no one in their right mind dreams of a realm based in Balances Retreat.

'struth, guvnah! Only the crazies want to put a realm there. :D

[Zakilevo]

You can't even expand around that region. It is surrounded by useless mountains...

[Feylonis]

Granted, Balance's would make a nice hidey-hole. You'd just need some monstrous food-filled granary.

[D`Este]

And lots of gold from others..

[songqu88@gmail.com]

Counterexample: Bowie and Sallowtown. Yeah, surrounding regions, sure...seriously, yeah right. And there was something from PeL a few months/years back about colonizing Sallowtown, and I believe Bedwyr on IRC saying like how he'd make it work.

* Artemesia looks at the state of Sallowtown and Koli Bedwyr.

* Artemesia is unimpressed.

Also, remember back when people actually though colonizing the regions now known to be part of the Zuma Coalition was a good idea? Remember those dragon dudes who wanted to set up in Dragon's Roost or something?

So no, apparently !@#$ty regions alone doesn't actually stop people from wanting them. It is uncertain whether great regions that aren't under their control would motivate them, or whether it requires those in the cool regions to make fun of the losers in the !@#$ regions (Hey, does no one keep in mind that this is still PVP and as long as you keep the trash talk Medievally you're still allowed to talk smack and make fun of them for being losers Well, I think we do it already, but not enough, and not viciously enough either. Come on, be BM bullies, ICly...ideally.)

Another consequence though might be the rise of more subversive type players. You know the kind. They go into a realm and rise through the ranks in order to put themselves in power instead. And with better stuff, then they'll want to do their con routine even more. Good/bad? Well, I suppose that's one way to create...CONFLICT(!)...but uh...yeah, mistrust within realms generally leads to realms dying. BUT! Check it out: Realms in cool regions dying means the LOSERS in !@#$ty regions can get a shot at finally being cool people for once! Yay!

[egamma]

Vellos, you should run the comparison based on region type, not realm. Comparing D'hara and...well...Terran, let's say, is hardly balanced.

[Glaumring the Fox]

Tom looked at the kingdom of Asylon and said " and all their lands shall be awesome" and it was so.