[Forum Game] Supernatural: The Hunt

[Ketchum]

Let us give a toast drink to our dead Seer Indirik and Guardian Angel Lanyon. We have avenged your deaths, for your death not in vain. We have known another Pack, Lycan. We have known D'Espana, as a member of Lycan pack. Though bad guy help us to hunt them down ???

I think I will do some in depth analysis later on.

[Cren]

Good to see you back, Ross and Sonya. I was going to lynch both of your characters tonight, if I didn't hear anything by tonight turn.

[Ross]

@Cren  Fair Enough

Ok here's the possibilities since we are 5.

- We have at least 1 bad guy, without doubt a werewolf.

- It's possible we have 2 bad guys (3:2), a mutant and a werewolf.

- In both case we can't afford to lynch a fellow. We are close to parity.

- Most agree Ketchum is clean,  possibly scanned by Indirik.

- We have then 4 possible bad guys including me, i have nothing to prove myself clean, i voted with the bandwagon on Barek day 1, simply because he was acting too much, Zaki on day 2 because he looked suspicious (which could be +1 for me) , lefanis day 3 for no specific reason (and i said it, i only pointed out his silence and low profile)

I'll start with an accusation then.

At first sight my main suspicion was Penchant.

He was the only one missing Day 2, when no kill happened during the night, like Lefanis pointed out. I've been thinking there was a strategy between D'Espana and him, because D'Espana accused penchant and even vote for him to finally change his vote at the last moment, just to confuse us about his partner.

But there's a flaw, if we assume Day 2 was the night the vampire was supposed to hunt, they were all dead, it's really the most possible theory there. Which makes Lefanis theory possibly wrong. Adding to that i always felt Lefanis was strangely playing low profile, and now he speaks and does lot of theory, a bit like Fury tried before he died. Furthermore, he was the first to challenge Indirik integrity when he started to indirectly says he was a "wild card" for the villagers. When, we started to point out Fury was a bad guy, he jumped on the situation to actively accuse him, bad guys care much about killing opposing bad guys than villagers, they are more deadlier because you don't see them coming, you can't defend yourself. Hence why, it's easier to be active since there's most likely no more vampires, he only needs to buy villagers trust. I don't feel he's clean. So i'll:

VOTE LEFANIS

If i'm wrong please convince me. Being wrong could be fatal for us. According to my theory there, Lefanis would be a mutant, if we believe there's one, i would be strongly surprised a lycan killed a lycan.

EDIT: I'm too tired, something doesn't work. I think we can be almost sure there's one mutant... how a werewolf would die then when 2 vampires are dead, unless they were 3 vampires... or one mutant ?

[Lefanis]

Ok here's the possibilities since we are 5.

False. We are 6. Ketchum, Ross, Telrunya, Lefanis, Sonya and Penchant. The fact that you get this basic fact wrong in your analysis is rather disturbing.

- We have at least 1 bad guy, without doubt a werewolf.

- It's possible we have 2 bad guys (3:2), a mutant and a werewolf.

- In both case we can't afford to lynch a fellow. We are close to parity.

No. Don't obfuscate the facts. The bad guys not only have to reach parity, but also eliminate the rival packs. I believe there are 3 bad guys right now. Technically, just as many bad guys as townies. One werewolf, one mutant, and one sleeper (might be attached or unattached). If not sleeper, perhaps a cursed character (which would also explain absence of day 2 hunt).

- We have then 4 possible bad guys including me, i have nothing to prove myself clean, i voted with the bandwagon on Barek day 1, simply because he was acting too much, Zaki on day 2 because he looked suspicious (which could be +1 for me), lefanis day 3 for no specific reason (and i said it, i only pointed out his silence and low profile)

Bull!@#$, a huge scumtell. You never voted for Zakilevo at any point, it's a lie plain and simple. You voted Barek day 1, and me on day 2. Now you are voting me again, perhaps because my analyses are getting too close for your comfort.

But there's a flaw, if we assume Day 2 was the night the vampire was supposed to hunt, they were all dead, it's really the most possible theory there. Which makes Lefanis theory possibly wrong. Adding to that i always felt Lefanis was strangely playing low profile, and now he speaks and does lot of theory, a bit like Fury tried before he died.

First, please don't compare my analysis with the bunkum served up by Fury. It's insulting.
Second, take a look at the order the hunts took place in. Slapsticks got mauled by Lycans on night one. Night 2, no hunt (let's assume for now it was vampires turn, and they were eradicated before hunting). Night 3, Lycans hunt down Indirik. Night 4, mutant hunts D'espana. It doesn't make sense that Lycans would hunt night one and three. Even if night two was vampires turn to hunt, after they get eradicated, it would be the mutants turn, before going back to the Lycans again. My theory holds up, like I said in my last analysis, the missed hunt was the mutant hunt. Also, since when is making an analysis a proof of guilt? Look at the analysis for the Thing that I made in other games, where I unmasked the bad guys with a similar detailed post.

Furthermore, he(Lefanis) was the first to challenge Indirik integrity when he started to indirectly says he was a "wild card" for the villagers. When, we started to point out Fury was a bad guy, he jumped on the situation to actively accuse him, bad guys care much about killing opposing bad guys than villagers, they are more deadlier because you don't see them coming, you can't defend yourself. Hence why, it's easier to be active since there's most likely no more vampires, he only needs to buy villagers trust. I don't feel he's clean. So i'll:

Wow. More lies. Here's a quote of what I said that day.

I don't trust Indirik, but Fury has also been acting weirdly.

VOTE FURY.

I voted for Fury, at a time when Indirik had 5 votes, and Fury just had one (Indirik's own). I was the first after Indirik to catch onto Fury's deception. And what do you mean by "we started to point our Fury was a bad guy"... What the !@#$? We?? You voted against me that turn. You weren't even involved in the killing of Fury. You never even mentioned Indirik or Fury in the short letter you sent. Here, let me post it for you.

VOTE LEFANIS

Until he shows up. Or he didn't vote purposely. Nothing suspicious from him so far.

The Mutant cannot be killed in a hunt. There is no question about the mutant trying to defend himself in the hunt, as he is unkillable. Its flawed logic to say that the mutant wants to kill the other bad guys because he "wouldn't see them coming". A mutant might want to kill the bad guys to buy the villagers trust, but certainly not because he is afraid of getting hunted as you say I am.

I count three deliberate lies in your post, and multiple attempts to misdirect the townies. My guess is that you are the third baddy I talked about earlier, trying to finish off the only townie who is trying to make sense of the situation.

VOTE Ross

[Lefanis]

If i'm wrong please convince me. Being wrong could be fatal for us. According to my theory there, Lefanis would be a mutant, if we believe there's one, i would be strongly surprised a lycan killed a lycan.

Now that I have explained why your analysis is wrong, I will also explain why I am innocent.

Assuming I'm the mutant for a moment, look at the questions that throws up-

Why wouldn't I hunt on night two?

Why would I unmask the baddies? It is to the advantage of the mutant, to keep the baddies alive as late as possible, to keep the heat off of him. It knows the other baddies can't kill it, so the mutant merely can go along with the (other two in this case) baddies just until the turn before all townies get wiped out.

I was a baddy last game. What are the odds of landing a bad guy role twice in a row? Pretty huge.

Why would I draw attention to myself? Better to lurk in the shadows, vote only when I have to speak little and play dumb. Certainly, there have been a number of townies behaving like that. I spoke up, made analyses of who I suspected as both mutant and lycan, reasoning both out with facts at hand. Fact is, speaking up, gets more attention upon you. It's a far riskier strategy than lurking in the shadows for the potential baddy. Look at Zakilevo for instance, who was happily lurking around looking for recruiters until I nailed him.

The truth is that I never blindly cast my vote. I gave good reasons every time, whether it was voting for Fury, Penchant, Zakilevo, and now Ross. And this is exactly what the real baddies don't want, because they want us to act like sheeple, rather than using our heads. I'll admit this makes me a ripe target for the baddies hunt, but at least I tried to catch them rather than trying to cowardly blend in.

The more you get everyone to speak up the more chances that the real bad guys will slip up and reveal themselves, like Ross just did. This holds true for all werewolf games. As I said to D'espana last turn, if I lied a single time in any of my analyses, lynch me first.

As I see it, Ross' argument against me goes along these lines-  "he named the bad guys with his analysis, he must be the mutant trying to buy the trust of the townies!" I have no response to that. Seriously. If we are going to start lynching those who correctly named the bad guys in their analysis, then we are giving them the game on a platter. Also, I had assumed Zakilevo was a werewolf, but he ended up being a sleeper. That means that even though I didn't know for sure his role, the reasoning and line of logic I followed was sound.

[Ketchum]

As promised. My analysis.

Day 1

Zakilevo (1 vote): Lanyon (55)
Barek (7 votes): Zakilevo (49), Slapsticks (52), D'Espana (57), Ketchum (58), Penchant (64), Ross (68), Sonya (79)
Sonya (1 vote): Barek (80)
Fury (3 vote): Indirik (62), Telrunya (77), Velax (81)
Velax (1 vote): Fury (78)

Not voted:  Lefanis.

Barek, the Spice Vendor, Hunter was hung from the gallows
Slapsticks, the Recruiter Chiropteran (Vampire) was torn into pieces

=====
Day 2

Fury (5 votes): Indirik (97), Lefanis (110), Velax (115), Zakilevo (117), Anonymous
Indirik (5 votes): Ketchum (100), Lanyon (102), D'Espana (104), Fury (105), Telrunya (108)
Lefanis (2 votes): Ross (101), Sonya (114)
Not voted: Penchant

Velax, the Double Voter Town Drunk was killed by Fury

Fury, the Brutal Chiropteran (Vampire) was killed by the Guardian Angel

Indirik, the Escapist escaped lynching.

=====
Day 3

Penchant (2 votes): Lefanis (130), Lanyon (126)
Lanyon (6 votes): Ketchum (136), Indirik (138), Zakilevo (139), Penchant (141), D'Espana (142), Telrunya (144)
Not voted: Ross

Lanyon, the Guardian Angel died protecting Indirik
Indirik, the Escapist Tester (sage) was eaten alive

=====
Day 4

Final tally:
Zakilevo: Lefanis (168), Ketchum (169), Telrunya (170), D'Espana (171)
Ross: Zakilevo (164)

Zakilevo, the Escapist Unattached Sleeper was burnt alive.
D'Espana, the Medium, Lycan (Werewolf) was hunted down.

[Ketchum]

Everyone, please unvote and vote Telrunya. VOTE TELRUNYA

Day 2 analysis returns much result although we all lynch the good guy and bad guy hunt good guy during the night.
If Telrunya thought his vote on Indirik is not enough, he want take Fury together with Indirik. Killing 2 birds with 1 stone eh?

I suspect he is the Lycan we are looking for. He has Doublevoter Trait I am pretty sure!
He voted Indirik last and put an Anonymous Vote beside Fury. As Fury is Vampire, I am not surprised he is Lycan 8)

One more thing is Telrunya always vote just 1-3 posts after D'Espana, the known Lycan ;)

Sorry forgot about this

Traits

:

Many traits may not be revealed until 'activated'
Doublevoter: This player has two votes.  One done publicly like everyone else, and the other send via a PM to the Game Moderator.  May vote twice for the same player, or for different players, or may elect to not use the second vote.

[Lefanis]

I'm not saying that Telrunya hasn't been acting fishy. But I doubt he is  double voter. The anonymous vote that day is easily explained. It's Velax, the double voter who was trying to take out Fury. We know Velax had two votes, which he used to bring Fury down, as he couldn't save Indirik.

[Ketchum]

I'm not saying that Telrunya hasn't been acting fishy. But I doubt he is  double voter. The anonymous vote that day is easily explained. It's Velax, the double voter who was trying to take out Fury. We know Velax had two votes, which he used to bring Fury down, as he couldn't save Indirik.

Just in case you not see this. Telrunya is acting wolfie and showing wolfies signs. I hope you remember when I am wolfie during the last 2 games, I am trying to stay out of people attention. Meaning speaking a little bit of logic here and there, then not talk much. Usually bad guys do not like bring attention so much on themselves. And this is what he has been doing ;)

[Ketchum]

Hmm, Lefanis you are right about Velax having double vote. Still I will vote Telrunya. As explained to you in PM.

Velax, the Double Voter Town Drunk was killed by Fury

[Ketchum]

Roles and Traits Analysis. Green mean Got Dead Good/Bad guys having it.

Trait Unrevealed:
1. Sorcerer
2. Tester
3. Priest
4. Guardian Angel
5. Hunter
6. Bad Guy
7. Healer
8. Witness

Role Unrevealed:
Villager
Tester (Seer)
Guardian Angel
Town Drunk
Priest
Apprentice
Healer
Chiropteran (Vampire): 1 Recruiter Vampire, 1 Brutal Vampire
Lycan (Werewolf): 1 Lycan/Medium
Mutant (Hybrid)
Sorcerer
Sleeper: 1 Unattached Sleeper

Trait Unrevealed:
Doublevoter
Cursed
Brutal
Hunter
Warrior
Spice Vendor
Miner
Rival
Escapist: We got 2 here.
Lucky
Medium
Assistant
Chemist
Recruiter

[Lefanis]

UNVOTE Ross.

Vote Telrunya

After speaking with Ketchum, decided to go along with his vote and reasoning for now.

[Fury]

First, please don't compare my analysis with the bunkum served up by Fury. It's insulting.

Say what?  >:(

[Sonya]

That's was a lot of reading...waooo, and the worse of it, i don't understand anything....so far.


Vote Telrunya


Cant harm anyone...... i lost track of this and have no idea.

[Telrunya]

I always vote around the same times, I can't do much about that. I don't have the doublevoter trait, as the guy with that is already dead, so your main argument for me fails there. Though I don't know what you discussed in PM's of course. I do think we can still trust Indirik that you're not a bad guy.

I think Ross is much more suspicious with his attack on Lefanis, he's trying to make him look guilty and I don't think his arguments hold up. It's all too sudden and doesn't fit in, in my opinion.

VOTE ROSS