Indeed Aurvandil has done little damage to the Veinsormoot, and for a reason. Up until now in the war we were determined not actually destroy the realms we face, which is why we repeatedly declined to go and destroy D'Hara, or to burn down Terran. As Mendicant at least had faith in a peace process and you don't generate good will by burning the hell out of your opponent whilst offering them peace. The same with the Provincia, if we were fighting to win we wouldn't have let it die, we would have marched some of our forces and garrisoned maybe 15kcs behind the fortress, which would pretty much roadblock any attacking army the moot could raise. Then again, if we were fighting to win we would never have founded the Provincia, we would have kept the nobles in estates in Aurvandil, to maximise income efficiency and the amount of troop leaders we have.
But that has rather changed, Aurvandil will actually fight to win now, we will have no reservations in making "Madina" out of D'Hara. At any rate, there is almost a guarantee of survival, I am entirely confident that even if Aurvandil is reduced to our core regions (Candiels, Candiels Fields, Agl and Zerujil) we would be able to pull of an excellent come back and ensure our continued survival. I don't see how our enemies can win when their current campaigning has been so lack lustre and entirely reliant upon Aurvandil bothering to march to face them in battle in a region of their choosing. The difference is, I'm betting, that Aurvandil can actually competently launch an offensive campaign but D'Hara and Terran can't, and that's why they don't. If they had an ounce of instinct they would have launched a campaign into Aurvandil the moment we started having mass revolts from war protests, that would have genuinely hurt us. But instead they did nothing and eventually attacked the Provincia, as if it served a purpose other than to give Aurvandil more time.
The Provincia rather excellently gained Aurvandil as much time as we needed, when we needed it to recover, and in the end that's all the realm was going to be good for on a purely strategic level.