At the start of the game, one third of the group (rounded up to the nearest whole number) are randomly and secretly chosen to be Imperial Spies.
Players:
1. Dishman
2. Ketchum
3. Lefanis
4. Arundel
5. Fury
6. Penchant
7. D'Espana
8. Thomasgriff
9.
10.
8 divided by three is roughly 2.67, meaning we have three spies.
Nobody may discuss this game in private - all discourse relating to the game must take place here.
Allow me to render my analysis:The first and second teams were relatively the same, with Dishman as an addition to the latter. Seeing as private discussion/coordination is forbidden, a single sabotage vote in the last run (and not two) leads me to believe that two of the remaining four rookies are spies. So out of Ketchum, Fury, Penchant, and I, two of us are spies. The odds of success are extremely low if I choose an entirely different team.
Now, I too believe that one of the first team vets sabotaged the second turn, and I highly doubt it was Thomasgriff. If it was, then he would have kept his mouth shut and voted in favor. No one would have been the wiser, and no one would have suspected him over the others. So out of the original three, I believe the spy is either Lefanis or D'Espana. When it comes to Dishman, he's obviously innocent. Voting as the new member, on the second turn, would be completely stupid and incredibly desperate. He's also an easy member to pin the sabotage on, so I doubly believe in his innocence.
Team choice and reason:It should be stressed that the rebels can only try and isolate the spies (or bait them) when the former leads in points, ensuring the reward for the risk taken. Thomasgriff was right when he explained this in his disapproval. I would have agreed with him if he stated as much prior to the vote, considering I only thought about it now. Obviously we can't bait this turn, especially since the next team has five members instead of four. If we tried, the spies would have a near assured victory, regardless of the two sabotage votes required. Instead, we should try a hybrid solution: going for a point, while trying to identify a spy.
Thus I'll be choosing Thomasgriff and Dishman to come along with me for sure. However, I'm stuck in a tricky situation when it comes to our fourth member. Since I'm not a spy (and I'm not going to try and convince you,) out of Ketchum, Fury, and Penchant, two of them are spies. Out of Lefanis and D'Espana, one of them is a spy. From the first group, I have a 66.6% chance of choosing a spy. From the second group, I have a 50% chance of choosing a spy: a perfect balance for point gaining and spy identifying.
Lefanis is heads and D'Espana is tails. Coin flip: heads. Lefanis will be our fourth member. If a sabotage vote comes, then we know Lefanis is a spy. This is the identifier part of the plan.
So to conclude my thinking, two outcomes from my choice of team will follow:
Outcome #1 (best outcome) - The team succeeds. This wouldn't necessarily absolve Lefanis of guilt, but it would grant the rebels another point. With a one point lead, Thomasgriff could try to isolate spies, like he wanted to, and assure victory either then or by the last turn. I believe him a rebel, and so I believe this the best outcome.
Outcome #2 (the worst, but not so terrible outcome) - Lefanis votes against. This would give Thomasgriff a team of three rebels to choose from next turn: Dishman, himself, and I. Since Lefanis would have voted against, he would free up D'Espana as a fourth rebel. This would leave Ketchum, Penchant, and Fury as candidates for the fifth slot. Out of those three, two of them (as stated previously) are spies.
However, two sabotage votes (also stated previously) are
required next turn for a successful mission sabotage. In other words, even if Thomasgriff chose a spy, there would only be one of them in the group, assuring a rebel point next turn no matter what. Thus worst case scenario, we go to the very last turn with a 33.3% chance of victory.
So the team is: Arundel, Thomasgriff, Dishman, and Lefanis.
