And but for the monster invasion and being told "you are screwed, migrate" you would likely never have attacked us in our homeland; it would have been a paper war.
This isn't true, we were already planning invasions by the Inner Sea. We wouldn't have been able to take over your regions, but we could have looted and plundered you away into oblivion. Based on what we have seen it looks like the drought and subsequent rebalance hit Corsantum hard. I don't think it beyond the possibility that you could have lost your realm, or have been forced to turn it over to Astrum or Morek at the very least.