It may now have the second-most nobles, but is still weakest militarily and will need some time to catch up. The more realms are at peace, the greater the odds of a collection of them gang-banging whoever dares start a new war, because hey, BM players seem to like doing that.
A big problem is that most of Caelum is very poor. All that desert and badlands. Low pop regions and no gold. Barely self-sufficient, outside of two good rurals. It will never be a big power in its current location. It needs to expand and grab some rich lands in order to amass any real power.