You can thank Tara for making sure that Suville stays out of this war.
They've done nothing but provoke Suville and support Carelian interests since peace was declare with CE. Very odd stance to take. Maybe their tune will change if their rurals get pulverized again.
Hey now, give Carelia and Caergoth (and Suville, the initiater of this distraction conflict) a little credi too.
Maybe the whole supporting rebellions within Suville's neighbours, attacking them when the opportunity presents itself, and as an ally delivering a fourth or a fifth of your force to aid (as it looks to outside, not sure how it really is) makes them hesitant of having you press closer to their border.
Could be something weirder of course too.
I think the position of the northern realms looks bleak given that however the southern conflict ends, Carelia and Caergoth are likely to aid Tara, and Suville is likely to aid Coria. But who knows, nobody seems to like anyone around the great lake
anymore.