The northern war

[Velax]

So, any bets on who'll win the war? Loosely, it's Arcaea and Ohnar West vs Greater Aenilia, Zonasa, Arcachon and Kindara.

Personally I think Arcaea's slowly winning it. Anyone think differently?

[Sacha]

Kindara? When's the last time they even showed up at the front, let alone fought?

[Velax]

Kindara have been marching north for the past several months. Their commitment is to defend Aenilian regions rather than attack Arcaea, but barely a week ago they were in Ornaz, helping defend the region while a large Arcaean army was in Larmebsi. While Zonasa and Aenilia are the main southern combatants, Kindara has done what it can to defend Aenilian regions.

[Vellos]

I actually see Arcaea/Ohnar West as slowly losing. GA has the same regions it had on day 1 of the war, while Arcaea has lost, IIRC, Hupar, Isular, and Unotosa and Ohnar West has lost Nbasah, Sanzzos, and Attlel. There've also been a few Arcaea/Ohnar West swaps due to region revolts and whatnot.

Arcaea seems to have an edge over GA at present, but hasn't been able to knock'em out yet, and Arcachon seems to be able to hammer Arcaea and Ohnar West with impunity. My money is on Arcaea losing, unless they can bring Cathay into the war on their side. Then all bets are off.

[Bedwyr]

Cathay's already announced they're joining, and as soon as they stabilize their new regions they'll be marching north in force to help out.

Aenilia hasn't lost any regions, per se, but Ornaz is effectively a net drain on their resources right now, and Erahol has been pretty badly hit.  Arcachon started this war with Unotosa and Tuhpos, and while Arcaea's lost Hupar it was always the most troublesome region.  Isular's been Cathayan for years now.

I'd still agree that Arcaea/OW are steadily losing, mind, save for the fact that they just need to hold on until Cathay marches at which point the fairly carefully balanced sides become upset in their favour.

[Vellos]

Cathay is joining for sure on Arcaea's side?

Didn't know that bit. Interesting. Then I'd say the war will turn decidedly in Arcaea's favor. GA won't be able to hold on under that sort of pressure, and, once they capitulate, Arcachon can't fight the combined military power of Arcaea and Ohnar West.

[Bedwyr]

Cathay is joining for sure on Arcaea's side?

Didn't know that bit. Interesting. Then I'd say the war will turn decidedly in Arcaea's favor. GA won't be able to hold on under that sort of pressure, and, once they capitulate, Arcachon can't fight the combined military power of Arcaea and Ohnar West.

Technically, they're joining on Ohnar West's side against Arcachon.  Amounts to the same thing, though.

[Vellos]

Hm, actually, it doesn't. If Cathayan forces can't hit the south, then that front could continue; Cathay's influence in the north would be similar to Kindara's influence in the south: minimal.

[Bedwyr]

Hm, actually, it doesn't. If Cathayan forces can't hit the south, then that front could continue; Cathay's influence in the north would be similar to Kindara's influence in the south: minimal.

(shakes his head) Doesn't matter.  Arcaea can grind Aenilia down even with Zonasa and Kindara helping, so long as it doesn't have to worry about the north.  And Ohnar West doesn't need a lot to keep things stalemated up there.  If Cathay rotated two 5K CS armies, which they can easily afford, that would be more than enough.  Hell, even 3K CS armies would probably do it after the first push to retake the lost regions.

[Heq]

Doesn't have to worry about the North?

I still don't like Arcachon's chances, but Ohnar West is getting pounded and there is probably little Cathay can do except defend a city.  I don't know if every other leader has spies and sympathizers pretty much everywhere 'cause in my mind that's a key Arcachonian advantage.  It's less of an advantage on a defensive campaign, but offensively it's a spectacular advantage.

[Bedwyr]

Doesn't have to worry about the North?

I still don't like Arcachon's chances, but Ohnar West is getting pounded and there is probably little Cathay can do except defend a city.  I don't know if every other leader has spies and sympathizers pretty much everywhere 'cause in my mind that's a key Arcachonian advantage.  It's less of an advantage on a defensive campaign, but offensively it's a spectacular advantage.

If, I said.  Currently, of course, we do, but all Cathay needs to do is have half their troops up their on a rotating basis to stiffen the Ohnarian forces, and that would even the odds enough to keep it a stalemate, which is all that's required.

As for spies and sympathizers, they seem to be endemic to the Far East.

[Heq]

Hells yeah, it's the Far East.  It's more insulting if you aren't being spied on and you don't occassionally catch people measuring out the throne to see if it's big enough for them.  Of course, for me it's win-win.  If Arcachon pulls it out, win.  If Arcachon gets stomped, maybe find a way to play with Sundar, Mega-Win.

[Morningstar]

And if everything changes in one fell swoop...


:o

[Heq]

...it's battlemaster?