Rebellion in Arcachon

[De-Legro]

Wait, your argument amounts to "Don't take the easy win, because Arcaea wants it and so you shouldn't take it."

Why should OW care at all about what Arcaea's long term goals, they can take and hold a bunch of territory and really, Arcaea isn't in any shape to stop them short of delcaring war, and the risk reward analysis should probably be based on that.

Do you even read your own posts? That is exactly my argument. Its not about an easy win or not doing something just because Arcaea wants it. Since Arcaea obviously has an agenda with Arcachon it would make sense to find out just how pissed off Arcaea might be if you decided to interfere. Common sense would suggest that after all the time and reasources Arcaea has spent on the current war that it might not be best for any relationship with them to go rushing in with your own plans. That is part of politics is it not? Make sure you can handle the consequences before annoying your large militaristic neighbour.

[Zakilevo]

Basically meaning don't shove your nose where you shouldn't

[Heq]

De-Legro,
I don't mean to sound condescending, but you actually don't need to know or care about what someone says their motivations are to discern their likely response function.  In effect, Arcaea is currently pinned in their response function such that there is no likely effect to taking, say, Ecsetuah or Mnalor.

If they were willing to go to war over them, then they were already planning a second stage expansion which would result in war anyway.  It's compeltely to OW's advantage to snatch those territories and there is little to nothing Arcaea could do about it save for war, but that's probably not an option unless they trust Arcachon to hold to a treaty, which no-one would.

You need to stop the hissy fits because your plans get derailed.  It happens, it's BM.

[Indirik]

If they were willing to go to war over them, then they were already planning a second stage expansion which would result in war anyway.  It's compeltely to OW's advantage to snatch those territories and there is little to nothing Arcaea could do about it save for war, but that's probably not an option unless they trust Arcachon to hold to a treaty, which no-one would.

Pfft... As if OW could run a successful takeover of a chicken coop, let alone an Arcachon region...

Besides, Arcachon and OW have a peace treaty that precludes OW from interfering in the war. If they did, then Arcaea could just whip out a copy of that treaty, and easily justify a war on OW. Even though Arcaea is not a party to that treaty, it would be the exact same justification OW used to declare war on Arcachon: an untrustworthy, treaty-breaking neighbor who needs to be put down.

And, honestly, who would stop them? I can't honestly think of a single realm that would bother to some much as blink over OW's destruction. And more than one that would cheer.

[De-Legro]

De-Legro,
I don't mean to sound condescending, but you actually don't need to know or care about what someone says their motivations are to discern their likely response function.  In effect, Arcaea is currently pinned in their response function such that there is no likely effect to taking, say, Ecsetuah or Mnalor.

If they were willing to go to war over them, then they were already planning a second stage expansion which would result in war anyway.  It's compeltely to OW's advantage to snatch those territories and there is little to nothing Arcaea could do about it save for war, but that's probably not an option unless they trust Arcachon to hold to a treaty, which no-one would.

You need to stop the hissy fits because your plans get derailed.  It happens, it's BM.

My entire point has been that it would be a likely assumption that Arcaea WOULD consider something like war against OW if they were to derail long standing plans. My personal plans have nothing at all to do with Arcachon, Carlos fights because his realm is at war, nothing else.

The claim that just because Arcaea might protect their investment in the northern war that they were always considering attacking OW as a second expansion is just foolish. Besides the fact that the continent would never stand for a simple war of expansion against OW, war doesn't mean we would expand into their regions at all, I would think more likely outcome would be to drive even more of OW rogue to teach them a lesson. Mind you this is all theory, Carlos isn't Santiago and has no involvement with the decision making in Arcaea.

Of course your entire theory is based on the fact that Arcaea is somehow "pinned" in their response function. I very much doubt that is the case. As Indirik noted it is unlikely anyone other then Arcachon would care about a war against OW in the event that they broke the treaty, especially if Arcaea was to promise no territorial gains, and it would be feasible for Arcaea to halt offensive actions against the Isle and go to a defensive posture in order to send a army off to OW.

[Heq]

Well, I suspect this can't be advanced at all.

I completely disagree with you and think this is a once in a lifetime chance for Arcaea to finish Arcachon off and even then it's going to be a hard, brutal, slog.  By the end of next winter Arcachon will be refortified and go back to being a nightmare campaign with very little payoff and everyone else opening the money-taps again.

There are likely fundemental back-end parts of our decision trees that diverge somewhere and without everyone laying out every assumption in some tedious philosophy class type structure, it's not going to be resolved.  I suspect it's something around the "Can Arcaea sustain a very long stalemate war effort with Arcachon?" or some modification of that, but it may be more fundemental, such as what attracts/retains nobles in a realm.

[De-Legro]

Well, I suspect this can't be advanced at all.

I completely disagree with you and think this is a once in a lifetime chance for Arcaea to finish Arcachon off and even then it's going to be a hard, brutal, slog.  By the end of next winter Arcachon will be refortified and go back to being a nightmare campaign with very little payoff and everyone else opening the money-taps again.

There are likely fundemental back-end parts of our decision trees that diverge somewhere and without everyone laying out every assumption in some tedious philosophy class type structure, it's not going to be resolved.  I suspect it's something around the "Can Arcaea sustain a very long stalemate war effort with Arcachon?" or some modification of that, but it may be more fundemental, such as what attracts/retains nobles in a realm.

Yes but in the situation you highlight, the stalemate situation has been affected by OW. I would be entirely possible to make gains against Arcachron that would help in preventing the stalemate situation from being re-established while also diverting against OW. In all likelyhood military action might not even be needed against OW, depending on what sort of political pressure Arcaea could bring to bear against them

Also it seems you argument takes into account OW attacking now, which can't happen as the soonest this theoretical OW action could take place is in one month. By that stage Arcaea has either made gains against Arcachon from the current situation or they haven't, the opportunity will have passed if they haven't.

[Heq]

I'll give you that is something I discount.  I always assume that a small nation can go to war at pretty much any time and have troops on the front within days (at most).  You're probably right though, Ohnar West probably can't put 4-5K in the field at the drop of a hat.

Well, with the core marshals potentially leaving Arcachon, I guess this will show if it's the marshals that make for the mobilization speed, or some hidden "these types of players" variable.

[Zakilevo]

I am sure there are enough experienced players in Arcachon to fill in for these so called 'core' marshals.

[Heq]

Almost certainly, the question is if the engagement level changes, or if it's tied to those particular people.

[De-Legro]

I'll give you that is something I discount.  I always assume that a small nation can go to war at pretty much any time and have troops on the front within days (at most).  You're probably right though, Ohnar West probably can't put 4-5K in the field at the drop of a hat.

Well, with the core marshals potentially leaving Arcachon, I guess this will show if it's the marshals that make for the mobilization speed, or some hidden "these types of players" variable.

Its more a fact that for OW to pursue this course, it needs a certain noble elected to PM, and the election is a month away. In terms of mobilization speed, my experience is it required both. Organised Marshals that are able to generate enthusiasm are essential, but there is only so much they can do if your player base logs in every 2nd or 3rd turn. While active players alone are not effective without good marshals.

[Heq]

I'm of the opinion that some people log in more when they feel that their character is exciting or dramatic.  It's probably a different engagement function for each player, but they can probably be grouped fairly easily, maybe along the lines as to if this is a a roleplaying game with strategy elements, or a strategy game with roleplaying elements.

Of course, I was agog when I discovered people play D&D for the dungeons and the dragons (IMHO birthright is one of the greatest games ever), so my friends and I may be a little off.

[Bedwyr]

Arcaea would very much care if OW attacked Arcachon.  That would be in direct violation of the peace treaty that ended the war with GA/Zonasa/Kindara, and there's no way in hell Jenred could convince anyone it wasn't his idea.  He'd pretty much be forced to declare war on OW to keep the south out of it.

[Lefanis]

... What a week.

... What a week...

And it's not even close to over with yet.

[vonGenf]

Am I the only one to see that OW cannot absorb Arcachon? Count the nobles... if OW takes over all the regions of Arcachon, OW becomes Arcachon.