Simple. Average food stored in non-rogue regions on Dwilight as of right now: 1120 bushels. The deficit seems to be on the order of 1-2 bushels per region. That's about 600 days until stores run out.
It's a very rough calculation. Wildly off, but the order of magnitude matters, not the exact number. Basically, I could cut food stores in half and people would panic with no need to.
Whoah. No way that the average deficit is 1-2 bushels per day. The most rural realms are reporting deficits of greater importance, like Solaria's of 18 despite it being one of the realms with the best food supply ratio. If the realms with the best food output not have a -20 deficit or so, how on earth can the average be -2?
And that is certainly not considering rot and soldier consumption. And rogue attacks.
If everybody runs a deficit, then no trade is possible, because no one will be able to export. That doesn't encourage war either, because you know your neighbors situation is just as bad as your own.
Initially it will decrease consumption, thus increasing the amount of food available. Later I suppose that Tom will rework it in the same way it is reworking Dwilight.
Do you honestly believe Tom will leave the global deficit standing, and have not read him telling how much food surplus there currently is stocked? If you did, do you really think he'll take RL years to fix the situation? If not, what is your point again?
In RL years. Thus, your alarmist attitude is not only annoying, but also pointless and perhaps even insulting to the Dev Team.
If the plan is to regularly increase and decrease production to fit the dev team's desires, then I find this a rather poor policy. Realms can't spend this much effort on adapting to their food situation all the time. Every change requires important adjustments, which are fun for no one. If there are going to be food balances 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11, then it means that it is all just arbitrary and that good performances are likely to be compensated to prevent anyone from being too well off as soon as they adapt? If the plan was to have a one-time decrease in food stores to make the deficit be felt, I would have much rathered a one-time deletion of stocks than a long period of decline, without knowing when it will change and what it will change to.
Also, I don't believe at all it will take RL years to run out with these new numbers. Perhaps, in the most optimist scenario, the top 3 rural realms will last a year. Others will most definitely not. Especially since I'm told that food rots even within warehouses now?