I like reading these old threads sometimes and seeing whether the predictions come true. Indirik was certainly right about Toupellon fragmenting after its first war, although I wonder if they'd held on until the new estate changes came in, could they have kept things together. Easier region maintenance and more food might have made a big difference.
Whoever said the Arcachon loyalists would just protest and ban all the rebels got things the wrong way around. And I think we all underestimated how much Arcachon would be weakened after it banned/exiled/executed some 3/4 of its nobles. It wasn't even really a fight after that happened.
Ohnar West under Me'hoe did take a poke at Ecsetuah (after it changed allegiance to them) but was quite quickly shot down with no need to resort to war.