I'm not sure what sort of force Tara has in the area (though since we retreated I presume it could make a difference), so let's assume that you lose; would Carelia be willing to accept a peace where you lose Tarkhog and Lurgrod or are you too far beyond trusting us dirty Suvillans at our word?
Of course, I'm starting to wonder if we can actually hold either region.
Quite honestly losing half of its farmlands would probably be a deathsentance to Carelia anyway, I doubt Suville wants or needs Carelia's trust. Then again you could consider losing 3 of 4 duchies to be "the end" of a realm already so who knows. I think this will be a longish war seeing Lurgord and Tarkhog rogue several times, and then eventually politics will ruin a nice fight one way or an other.
