The War of Ice and Sun

[Tandaros]

Fronen offered to join the war on Thalmarkin's side at the start. We even had a referendum but Thalmarkin told us to keep out. Melhed also did offer to return Fronepu to Fronen I think. I don't recall all the terms of the offer. However, joining Melhed's side didn't seem like a good idea and didn't have much support in the Senate (if any). I also think at that point we were already preparing to aid Enweil against Riombara. Riombara's war declaration didn't happen as quickly as we thought it would though.

I think Fronen's neutrality might have actually been the greatest strategic failure of this war, tbh. If they joined either side it would have swayed things drastically and they could have got Fronepu back.

[jaune]

I bet if Fronen would have joined, especially Melheds side... Fingolfins golden tongue would have gotten them on deep trouble. War would have escalated pretty quickly.

-OO

[Lorgan]

Before that happened though, Kalixta had an idea: Why not let Fronen have Llongrel, Tepmona, and Bil Havil? Thus cutting off Thal means of invasion by land via diplomacy? She was convinced that if that happened, the Thal offensive would be stopped in its tracks and she could again focus on naval raids, which she was certain that even ThalMarkin did not have the gold or manpower to adequately defend or reciprocate. She was calling for it, loudly, but it did not happen in time.

Heh. That's pretty funny. Melhed (though I suppose you weren't part of it yet) tried the same thing during our war with Fronen before the invasion. You joined the war on our side to everyone's surprise, took Jyl, then signed peace and declared that no one was to travel through your regions. We ignored it of course. As we would anyone making such a ludicrous attempt to cockblock us.
It's kinda the same as a war declaration in terms of hostility but without the actual guts to declare war, making it pretty much their final bet. Which is why Fronen wouldn't have done something like this. They could've attacked us but it was far more likely that they'd attack you, we just succeeded in convincing them not to. Good thing Rio became a distraction soon enough though.

I'm a constant promoter of the Eagles of Hope being the best army in all the lands.

\o/

[JeVondair]

Sacking our badlands regions did about jack though. They were still busted up from the invasion, and Sandefur didn't even have walls or militia. We have rurals that produce more gold than that; it's basically the Cuidado Juarez of Thalmarkin.

Yeah, the long term of the raiding plan was to drive the regions rogue and/or destroy any RC's we find to limit your recruiting efforts, then actually return later and take regions over that would be too far for your refits to occur. THough Dragonstrike was only assigned a few nobles, it was theoretically doable. The great failing was me as a player. When I saw all those badlands between your capital and my targets, I was thinking in terms of Dwlight Badlands that take 2-3 days each to cross, as opposed to half a day. When I found that out, I felt it would just be better to role all my forces into one army to better coordinate defense against the Eagles or wolves respectively.

Up to that point, Kalixta had been hoping to at least hold out long enough for the diplomatic climate to change and put this war on hold for a time. A stalemate was the only sort of victory we might have hoped for, but it became clear that there were not enough diplomatic ways coming quickly enough to rock the boat. Knowing loss was inevitable, the game changed to making a good show, but activity was dropping off. I mean, who likes losing right? I am not sure if I can really blame them, but I can't really empathize either. Win or lose, it's all free honor and prestige to Kalixta.

And about that merry little romp ya'll had past Fronepu and Mhed? Ya, Kalixta was going to let you go. I knew we'd never catch the lot of you, although we did get one or two stragglers. She also knew that your numbers (maybe 8cs or so?) were not great enough to cause a huge amount of damage, not with the way ya'll were moving. Your discipline between looting and hoarding enough hours to move was amazing, btw. Instead, Kalixta wanted to Bring her army to Llongrel where she'd recently challenged one of your marshals to a duel after having discovered her and the Fronen doge cavorting in secret. She wanted to crush the Thal forces that remained there (about 4-5cs), sending them running back to Qual before bringing her army back to Tepmona or Rengo and wait for your raiding force to make a mistake, commit to a march into a region she could reach, then catch them and vanquish them at that time. The Queen, however, ordered that we give chase to your raiding party instead.

[Antonine]

It's worth remembering that Fronen lost Vore to Thalmarkin prior to the last invasion.

I imagine that Melhed might just have been able to bribe Fronen into the war with the promise of Vore and Fronepu. Melhed could have either claimed Unger or, more realistically, their old regions north of the river. That way Thal would have been fighting two realms and wouldn't have been facing complete destruction either - which would have provided a greater incentive to give up the war and make peace than if Melhed had been gunning for leaving Thal only with Sandefur as a city.

Militarily, if Melhed had been able to get its act together I expect it could have started devastating Thal border regions and wiping out militia and shift the field of battle onto Thal turf - and the resultant war of attrition on Thal lands would have probably let Melhed win - but that would have relied on Melhed nobles being more active and working together better.

And that, from the sound of things, is something that was never going to happen to the extent necessary. Diplomacy was the only way Melhed could have won and even the odds of that happening were weighted against them.

[Noldorin]

Some points from my own point of view:

From the start it was kinda clear that Thalmarkin would be able to win, no matter the outcome of battles. The questions was how we would win. When the war started we had the armies of OG, Sint and Fronen at our backs, literally asking us to help us. We refused them since we wanted to fight this war on our own and settle the Thalmarkin-Melhed argument without questions. There was indeed some risks of irritating our allies for our quite harsh tone in telling them to not aid us, but this is what we wanted to do to boost Thalmarkin as its own realm and proclaim our dominance in the north. And well... to get a fun war ooc

In the war, as we decided to fight it, I saw loads of potential dangers. Firstly, Thalmarkin wasnt nearly as rich as Melhed and neither as we should have been at the beginning of the war. We literally (or very close to) emptied our reserves at each refit. One wasted battle with killed armies would have been hazardeous. As well, I also saw the danger of keep the Qual/Lastfell line in the case of a melite attack there. If the Thalmarkian armies are in Lastfell and Melhed in Bil Havil (which would be very probable after a melite misdirection (Bil Havil-> Lastfell), Melhed would be able to race Thalmarkin to Qual and beat us to it. (Lastfell-> Orde-> Qual is a terrible travel...). The sea-invasions could have done us some damage, but none of these regions was producing worthy gold (not even Sandefur), so at most it would be an inconvenience.

There was of course the danger of Fronen joining Melhed, but frankly I saw this as a very small possibility due to the Fronen-Thalmarkin relations that has been built since the end of the Fronen-war. Fronen has indeed had many rulers since then and the friendship may have come and gone with who is the current Doge, but overall the friendship was good. Also, Thalmarkin was pretty much the one holding back Old Grehk from taking Wudenkin during the war (though the invasion came at a time that made it impossible for Old Grehk). If Fronen had attacked Old Grehk it would have been an open goal for Old Grehk to march in and place its flag on Wudenkin. So, help from the outside was almost impossible for Melhed, unless it came from Enweil or Riombara (where the first could do nothing and the second has been a close friend of Thalmarkin). What could have happened would be a northern coalition against Thalmarkin with Sint, OG and Fronen all inside... but I dont really see that happening.

All in all I would say we managed to create a fun and possibly equal war out of a extremely one-sided situation. As well, yayy for Fingolfin! Wars against Undead, Fronen, Daimons and Melhed, and still no defeats! :p

[Miriam Ics]

Fingolfin Rocks!

[Terises Jr.]

If fronen help melhed two month ago, thalmarkin still win.. Fronen have small/weak army..

 But not today.. We manage to enlarge our army, get better rc, more active noble and full population region (almost all) ..

We will see with new leader, what will happen..

[Terises Jr.]

Maybe Fronen will declared war on Melhed.. To take back fronepu from Melhed.. :-P

[Turner]

It's worth remembering that Fronen lost Vore to Thalmarkin prior to the last invasion.

I imagine that Melhed might just have been able to bribe Fronen into the war with the promise of Vore and Fronepu. Melhed could have either claimed Unger or, more realistically, their old regions north of the river. That way Thal would have been fighting two realms and wouldn't have been facing complete destruction either - which would have provided a greater incentive to give up the war and make peace than if Melhed had been gunning for leaving Thal only with Sandefur as a city.

Militarily, if Melhed had been able to get its act together I expect it could have started devastating Thal border regions and wiping out militia and shift the field of battle onto Thal turf - and the resultant war of attrition on Thal lands would have probably let Melhed win - but that would have relied on Melhed nobles being more active and working together better.

And that, from the sound of things, is something that was never going to happen to the extent necessary. Diplomacy was the only way Melhed could have won and even the odds of that happening were weighted against them.

Had Fronen gotten involved and sided with Melhed, Old Grehk would have gotten involved and sided with Thalmarkin. We only agreed to, reluctantly I might add, stay out of the Thal/Mel war provided it remained 1 on 1.

Melhed tried to entice OG to get involved in the later stages of the war, but really, there was no point for us to do so. There was also nothing put on the table for us to even consider turning on Thalmarkin which I might add has developed into a strong ally and true friend for OG. My character and Fingolfin have worked hard on creating that relationship between our realms, there would have to be a very damn good carrot dangling infront of us to get OG to turn on Thal

[Solari]

For what it's worth, since Noldorin has weighed in, and I know the opinion of several influentials in Thal from IRC (;P): I might have been the only person who thought Melhed could win this war. Fortunately, I'm also the only person ultimately responsible for wars. And so Enzo wins. Now, lemme go back to the rest of this thread and then I'll explain how Melhed could've won, IMO.

[Solari]

Had Fronen gotten involved and sided with Melhed, Old Grehk would have gotten involved and sided with Thalmarkin. We only agreed to, reluctantly I might add, stay out of the Thal/Mel war provided it remained 1 on 1.

Another point where I was definitely on the opposite side. NOBODY but me in the upper echelons of Thal's leadership wanted anything other than a 1v1 war. That's to their credit. Noldorin, Lorgan... I don't recall if Jaune wanted a 1v1 war or not, but I think so... they all strongly resisted my suggestion that we bury Melhed early in an 80K CS pile of hurt. Enzo even struck up a dialogue with the general of Fronen, offering them free intel on Melhed's army movements, to either sway them to our side (independent of any diplomacy—sorry Gondolin!) or to create enough doubt to sideline them.

[Solari]

So here's how Melhed could've (IMHO) won the war. This strategy would've had to have been executed from the beginning, when the fundamentals where more similar. We'll assume that both realms have 20K mobile CS from the start. We'll also assume that Melhed has a single army, and Thalmarkin has two (the third army didn't participate in battles south of Sandefur). So that's one army of 20K and two of 10K, which is basically how the war began.

I would've kept my force in a single army, because Thalmarkin enjoyed a healthy advantage in nobles but parity in CS until late in the war. One should always consult the statistics for self-reflection. I know that Melhed had several opportunities to spy on Unger, Vore, etc. You folks should've known we had virtually no militia. Subtract what you know from what you don't, and you've got our true fighting strength. I do this all the time. Melhed had something like 15-20K in militia, conservatively. From this, I could figure out your mobile strength for the next campaign. How? Because even though the stats are a week behind, it takes nearly that long to prep for war and get back to the front. Everyone should be doing this. It isn't cheating, and it isn't hard.

If I were Melhed, I would've immediately occupied Bil Havil. I noticed over the course of the war that Tepmona became the rally point. Some of Thal's commanders also saw the value in that. Still, I would've chosen Bil Havil, for the following reason: for Thalmarkin, it's a hell of a long way to Lloringel. With 20K massed on the border of Lastfell, a sane general would've never ordered a sortie down south. They might've misdirected and hoped that the enemy would take the bait, sure. But then everyone's refitting, and it's roughly the same distance from Lastfell to Unger as it is from Bil Havil to Agyr. A battle of hoarded resources (gold and recruits) fought early on would've been won by Melhed. If Melhed could've shown demonstrable progress in the war, it's likely that Fronen would've joined. But as Turner pointed out, Grehk would've ginned up ANY excuse to attack Fronen. I don't have much in the way of a strategy for that. It might've opened up other rifts, but who knows? Let's stick to what we know/actually happened.

With 20K in a single army, planted in BH, Melhed would've dictated the course of events early on. It doesn't guarantee victory, but as others have pointed out, it allows one to be the actor rather than the reactor. Instead, Melhed camped in Tepmona. I'd guess this is because of the perceived opportunity to strike at Vore. Vore should've been written off immediately, for the same reasons that Thal wrote off Fronepu. It's too far, and too risky. War in BM is a series of dice rolls, and you should always try to have the odds on your side. Roll enough, and you'll win. Very few wars are won in BM by a single battle.

So, with a single army in BH, I'd have done the same thing I did in Thal: misdirect like hell. Misdirect all day, every day. At every general's disposal is a tool that confuses everyone but a spy. It's free. It's easy. Use it. Then, when you decide to move, nobody's quite sure what you're actually doing. Generally, people discern a misdirection by looking at the stats and deciding whether the movement is stupid or not. Who cares?! We've all seen idiotic movements. Appear as though you're moving all the time and you throw 90% of the military brain trust of BM for a loop.

I'd have misdirected  to Tepmona. To Lastfell. To Rengo. Etc, etc. And then, after a few days of seeing Thal's reaction, I'd commit to a course. Knowing me, I would've attacked Lastfell right away, for reasons I've mentioned above. Then we'd refit, and come back with roughly 20K, as Melhed did for awhile. And I'd occupy BH again. If Thalmarkin separated its armies, I'd punish them by attacking Lastfell a second time. One of their armies is refitting, and the other is almost certainly called back because a 20K-to-10K battle is brutal for the loser. The victor has the upper hand. I'd raze the walls for a half day and then fall back to refit. And then I'd come back to BH, and repeat the same strategy over and over, until Lastfell had no walls and I spied an opportunity to attack it again. Then I'd loot the hell out of it, the way Thal did with Melhed's rural regions. Except looting Lastfell to rogue would've been far more devastating for us, because our town was equal to a city in terms of income.

I'd appreciate some commentary at this point before proceeding with the rest of my imaginary plan.

[Telrunya]

Richard used to be from Old Grehk and while he left angry, he and the Emperor patched things up later. Fronen would never have aided Melhed if Old Grehk wouldn't have agreed with it, the Alliance between Fronen and Old Grehk was Richard's highest priority (Hence why Fronen offered to aid Thalmarkin at first, it was easier diplomatically and would have offered a great low-risk practice in war). Melhed also had a bad diplomatic reputation after the Rebellion, so Richard was only just humouring Melhed in the beginning by not immediately rejecting them, figuring it would pay off some day. Maya did a lot of work on fixing Melhed's reputation though and Richard was interested to honestly listen in the end, but by then Fronen had already committed aid to Enweil. Richard would have never have come to Melhed's aid if he couldn't have convinced Old Grehk in the process though, which wasn't the likeliest thing. Would that have been possible, Nothoi was a possible candidate for aid for Melhed as well, at least under their previous Ruler.

That said, Richard didn't really care as long as he got Fronepu out of it without hurting relations with Old Grehk significantly, which was a challenge on its own if that meant aiding Melhed (And would have been 'You should have just accepted our aid, you silly Thalmarkians! See what happens when you refuse it!'-moment). Richard also wouldn't have committed without a more favourable agreement with Melhed in regards to the return of Fronepu then was initially proposed, since he was taking quite a risk on relations and figured he could milk the situation if he actually could have gotten Old Grehk's agreement (If not, he would never have accepted anything). And Melhed should have had a decent chance of course. Fronen's Army needed time and practice before it could become effective, which is why Richard was seeking conflict. Richard doubted Fronen's ability to change the outcome and figured all he was capable off was tipping the scales in Melhed's favour if they were able to stale-mate Thalmarkin on their own.

All in all, I believe it was highly unlikely. But Richard listened in the end on the thought of 'can't hurt to try and convince Old Grehk if needed', thinking Melhed was doing better against Thalmarkin then they were. Plan B would have been most likely an attempt to convince Old Grehk to aid Fronen against Melhed to take Fronepu back.

[Turner]

I think Richard's Plan B had more chance of winning OG over more than anything. Like I said, you would have to offer up something pretty big for OG to even consider betraying Thalmarkin