Aurvandil won't fall, we are just taking our business back ^_^
Your ruler isn't really bothering with the peace talks anymore, nor has Florence testified as requested, nor any other Aurvandil nobles for that matter. Don't overestimate how much D'Hara and the others care about you, if you won't bother helping yourselves.
The way I see it, Aurvandil's lands have been contentiously mismanaged for some time now, due to poor leadership. The western realms don't want your realms to turn rogue and spawn tons of rogues, but you are looking more and more like a liability more than anything else, and the endless calls for food and gold and military aid is what seems to be ahead of us.