Doesn't have to worry about the North?
I still don't like Arcachon's chances, but Ohnar West is getting pounded and there is probably little Cathay can do except defend a city. I don't know if every other leader has spies and sympathizers pretty much everywhere 'cause in my mind that's a key Arcachonian advantage. It's less of an advantage on a defensive campaign, but offensively it's a spectacular advantage.