The Current War

[GoldPanda]

I love how Leta's initial populist justification for war - CE's alleged pronouncements against Magna Serpaensism and wish to 'dominate' Carelia - have not only come to pass, but have now come at an additional cost of two thirds of Carelia!

That wasn't exactly false, but it's been spun beyond recognition. CE certainly made it clear to Queen Leta, and King Bartho before her, that it did not like the fact that the Serpaensists given shelter in Carelia were appointed to lordships, and then a third of the lords were Serpaensists, and then almost half of the lords of Carelia were Serpaensists. This was going to drive a wedge between CE and Carelia sooner or later. But CE also made it clear that it was not going to attack Carelia over the issue, as evidenced by the fact that CE never did declare war on Carelia.

If telling your ally what you like and don't like is "domination", then maybe realms should just stop talking to each other entirely.

Rereading what he posted, I see what you mean. But that doesn't make any sense. It doesn't match anything I've ever heard before, including straight from the players of the Kindon and Bedwyr families. Something's not making sense here.

Fair point. I am wondering how the plan got sold to Carelia's nobles. So you take two duchies away from one of your neighbors, and then give away two of your own duchies? That's a net gain of, err, zero duchies. All risk for no gain. ... Unless the plan was to take Skalk, Nida, and then keep going?

Was there a war plan beyond "down with CE!"?

[Indirik]

If the threats would have worked they would have won the war with Caergoth and Suville... Why would they throw that away and gamble on taking out the CE?

That's short-term thinking. If you only consider the "now", then perhaps that viewpoint would work. It falls apart, though, as soon as you get past "today" and start looking at what happens "next week". I can think of several reasons why Carelia chose the path they did. (Keep in mind I'm trying to think of this IC from Carelia's position.)

• If Carelia goes along with CE and lets CE's bullying stand, then sure they "win" the current war. You are correct in that. But they also get a pissed off Caergoth/Suville for neighbors. And as soon as CE's back is turned, as everyone knew was about to happen because CE was marching north, Caergoth/Suville would almost certainly just resume the war. But this time big brother CE is busy, and can't come to Carelia's rescue. But this time their enemies are also bitter about having been strong-armed in the past. This time it will be even worse for Carelia.
• If Carelia lets CE force the peace, and it does hold, then what does Carelia do? A looooooong period of boring, enforced peace. That's really sure to be exciting. March to CE's aid to fight the northerners? What if they don't want to fight the northerners? And besides, they still have to worry about those shifty former-Abingtonians who might move to attack them any day now!
• Carelia almost certainly did not want to be seen as the newest "CE buffer realm". (Speaking strictly from an IC viewpoint, here, not making accusations...) By allowing CE to enforce the peace for them, Carelia appears to be in CE's pocket. Which the leaders of Carelia apparently did not want to be. I mean, who wants to be a lackey who survives only at the sufferance of a big brother?
• Organizing the movement against CE turns your former enemies into your allies. Now you have more friends, instead of mroe enemies.
• If it had worked, then Carelia comes out of it even stronger. Their new allies in Suville are stronger because of the land that Carelia gives them. (And are stronger allies for because of the new shared experiences of having worked together.) Carelia is stronger because of the new land they take from CE. CE, the realm that has tried to meddle in their affairs, is now weaker, and less capable of meddling in their affairs again in the future. Overall, Carelia comes out of it a bit stronger in absolute terms, and much stronger in relative terms, as well as more influential for having engineered the downfall of CE.

Sure it was a risk, and in the end it didn't pay off. But if you want to be big, you to think big, and play big.

Was there an OOC consideration for the war? Maybe. Who wouldn't want to be the one to arrange the war that takes down the biggest, most successful empire in the game? It makes a great story. But if you're thinking that it was an OOC dislike of CE that drove the war, then perhaps what you're really seeing is an IC hatred that you're projecting onto the player.

[Indirik]

Fair point. I am wondering how the plan got sold to Carelia's nobles. So you take two duchies away from one of your neighbors, and then give away two of your own duchies? That's a net gain of, err, zero duchies. All risk for no gain. ...

If you reduce the strength of your enemy while holding your own strength steady, then you have greatly increased your relative strength compared to your enemy's. In the most basic terms: 5 CE duchies vs. 4 Carelia duchies means CE is stronger. 3 CE duchies vs. 4 Carelia duchies means Carelia is stronger, even though Carelia still has only 4 duchies.

Unless the plan was to take Skalk, Nida, and then keep going? ]Was there a war plan beyond "down with CE!"?

Dunno. I suppose if we had managed to actually accomplish the "down with CE" part, we would have decided what to do from there

[Revan]

For what it's worth, how it seemed to go down IC:

Leta and her council were ambitious. They thought it a mistake to continue war in the south and threaten to expand already indefensibly lengthy frontiers - Carelia needed to consolidate. What's more, they found CE's friendship oppressive and genuinely believed that the southern realms ought to be united against a greater evil. They genuinely believed with CE's troubles up north, there was a historic opportunity to refashion the continent. Carelia had the chance to challenge or even usurp CE's strength and hegemony in Atamara by making a gambit for Skalk, Nida and - let's face it - Stargard.

There was already a lobby within Carelia that found CE influence objectionable and resented her ownership of Nida. Many did not think CE that great a friend. Meanwhile, a crisis seemed to loom. It was revealed (alleged?) that CE would support Carelia against the southern realms only if the Serpaentist lords were made to step down from their positions. The implication was made that non-compliance could/would lead to CE hostility. A fairly biased referendum asked whether to accept CE meddling in Carelian internal affairs and to abandon Carelian freedoms or to preserve those freedoms and resist hostile influences.

At some point, but a while after peace had first been made with Caergoth/Suville, the exact terms of the agreed treaty were revealed. There was some uproar about selling cities for war aid and trusting realms so easily prone to switching sides but, crucially, the affected Dukes were content in the knowledge they'd be re-situated to the duchies we acquired in war.  The terms of the treaty seemed to express a confidence that Carelia would be successful in the immediate to short-term. At all times there seemed to be 100% belief that the coming war was not only just, but winnable. Likewise, that Caergoth and Suville would prove to be worthy and stalwart allies.

Anyway, my lasting impression of the whole sorry saga is that a few well placed Carelians decided a long time ago that Carelia would fight CE to the death, no matter success or failure. In the end Magna Serpaensism and free religion was a bit part to simply trying to take CE down a peg or two. It's like Carelia was always betting on an eventual northern breakthrough that would finally give her the space and opportunity to succeed against CE. You wouldn't believe the pressure that Nathan came under to conclude a peace or ceasefire last summer. I actually heard shortly before I paused that whilst he claimed CE's PM refused to answer his letters on the matter, CE's PM apparently hadn't received anything at all from Nathan. That's another thing I'd love to hear a little more about! ;-)

[Darksun]

As one of the few players with characters in Suville and (for most of her life) in Carelia I can confirm the letters sent to Suville on the subject of the First Suvillian Crusade against the Serpaenists in Carelia, the Southern War of Aggression against the Empire and finally the Rout of Carelia (or the War for Wayburg).

ICly - if you're going to offer to pay your allies, you had best make good on your offer. Carelia made a gross miscalculation if they believed that Suville would gladly bury the hatchet, the peace deal was not received well by the nobility in Suville.
Overall, abrupt leadership changes in both realms (Leta for Nathan and Aeryn for Caibre) not to mention the mess that is left of Caergoth led to a lack of continuity and direction in these wars. This was exploited to make a case for the ceasefire between Suville and CE and finally the turn of Suville against Carelia herself.

I think it would be interesting to hear Bedwyr's view on the senior goings on in Carelia as he played the opposite to my own characters.

[de Aquitane]

My charecter in Carelia was quite inactive when the war was switching from a southern war to one against the Empire, but I recall what was told to the court of Carelia was basically that CE had explained Carelia would need to change their religious views, or the war in the south would begin going poorly. Given that at that time Carelia stretched from Ser'quea to Oyonniarre, the realm would've been very very vulnerable to a Tara/CE attack. What actually happened, also regarding wether or not King Nathan ever searched for peace as was demanded, is impossible to say without the relating private IC letters.

Malic de Aquitane believes the whole war was a Caergoth/Suville/Empire plot to take down the glorious land of heroes, but it seems likely to me that some sort of meddling occurred from CE side, which Leta and company then tried to use to get Carelia into a better geopolitical position (It's troublesome being the only realm with a border with the south). After that, due to whatever reasons, the combat strength coming from the south did not match what was expected. That, and some absurd military decisions (an assault to Nida with 10 h travel time and almost even strength comes to mind..) lead to a halt in progress.

Was a fun war, I expect Carelia will be bitter to the realms around it for quite a while (the rest of its life).

[Geronus]

Which is so obvious to anyone with half a brain that I would be very surprised if Carelia survives for long after this war ends, barring any changes from the current status quo of the war. I predict that it will go the way of Falasan, and ASI (you'll have to pardon me if the comparisons are bad, I was relatively uninvolved in AT when those events actually occurred). Some reason will be contrived to put the realm out of its misery.

That assessment is contingent on the South staying out of the rest of the war though, which is by no means certain.

[Sypher]

Which is so obvious to anyone with half a brain that I would be very surprised if Carelia survives for long after this war ends, barring any changes from the current status quo of the war. I predict that it will go the way of Falasan, and ASI (you'll have to pardon me if the comparisons are bad, I was relatively uninvolved in AT when those events actually occurred). Some reason will be contrived to put the realm out of its misery.

That assessment is contingent on the South staying out of the rest of the war though, which is by no means certain.

The Falasan comparison seems apt to me. Falasan was left with one duchy at the end of the war with Tara/CE and a CE colony in its largest city prior to the war. Once Coria was firmly established it was only a matter of time before a reason was found to get rid of what was left of Falasan.

[GoldPanda]

It seems to me that Carelia's leadership sold a risky gamble to their realm-mates as an easy land-grab. So this was either gross negligence on their part, or they never cared about Carelia's welfare in the first place. The last King of Carelia that had its best interests at heart was probably King Bartho, if you ask me.

After signing a ceasefire treaty, Falasan started fielding troops on aggressive settings in order to help their allies again. So they had to be put down. I say "put down" because humans can read treaties and can generally be expected to follow them when their neck is on the line. It was CE's fault for mistaking the rabbits for humans. 

So Carelia should be fine, at long as they don't ally with the northern realms and start showing up for battles. Probably. Suville might still decide to gank them. CE has bigger fish to fry.

[Gustav Kuriga]

biased reporting above, please steer clear. *waves baton*

[Sonya]

My charecter in Carelia was quite inactive when the war was switching from a southern war to one against the Empire.

Same happened to me, i was the laziest duchess on Atamara, only logged in 1 day in the week to stay active and check on the food. I remember i mobilized once to fight Suville but later got busy at work.

Now the (Censored) crowned me and i have to log in daily.....sighs i miss the old "quickplay" days.


But now that CE is not busy with Carelia, you might as well say that this war is over.

[Geronus]

To quote the immortal Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'till it's over." 

[Munro]

This is the first forum post I've made since Core was abandoned, since I could bother trying to remember the password I once used, although I've now reset it.

But I'd agree. Saying that the War is pretty much over would be extremely foolish. The North once said that and the Central Alliance came back into the fight strongly.

The Northern realms are still extremely dangerous and far from beaten. It's been a fairly even fight. Their larger numbers against our quicker refit times, but there has been seemingly frustrating agreements on both sides ... Eston/Coria, Talerium/Darka and Tara/Hammarsett. But that's War I suppose! Whilst not as scared as I once was, I still don't feel very confident in Coria's position and things could certainly change for the worse, although the CE reinforcements will help a LOT.

[Bedwyr]

It seems to me that Carelia's leadership sold a risky gamble to their realm-mates as an easy land-grab. So this was either gross negligence on their part, or they never cared about Carelia's welfare in the first place. The last King of Carelia that had its best interests at heart was probably King Bartho, if you ask me.

No.  It wasn't sold as an easy land-grab.  It was sold as a a risky gamble that could pay off big, the war with Suville and Caergoth wasn't going well anyway, and the CE was trying to dictate terms.  Did it work?  No.  But that doesn't mean it was an insane idea.

That said, Malcolm never cared in the slightest about Carelia except as a means to an end.  The negotiations he was conducting almost resulted in him becoming the southern-aligned Duke of Wayburg, but then he had to go and fall for Leta...Annoying, that.  I've wanted Wayburg for a while.

Bartho was the one who, incidentally, arranged the war with Caergoth OOC.  That was confirmed after the CE war started and discussions were had on what prompted the Caergoth/Carelia war in the first place.  What makes that particularly asinine is that there were plenty of good IC reasons for it...They just chose not to use them.

[Regulus Blackmore]

Bartho was the one who, incidentally, arranged the war with Caergoth OOC.  That was confirmed after the CE war started and discussions were had on what prompted the Caergoth/Carelia war in the first place.  What makes that particularly asinine is that there were plenty of good IC reasons for it...They just chose not to use them.

Caergoth declared war on Carelia, I think.